In an unusual alignment, Wall Street's three premier investment banks—Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS Group—have simultaneously issued emphatic endorsements for gold, with analysts debating whether $4,000 per ounce represents the next milestone.

Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS concur that gold stands among the most compelling havens for investors following the Trump administration's recent tariff impositions on the European Union and key trading partners. Morgan Stanley's latest metals market analysis notes that additional dollar weakness could propel commodities forward, while any uptick in U.S. inflation might channel capital toward precious metals. Chinese policy shifts could further amplify bullish momentum for the sector, though fading metal inventory effects and escalating tariffs threaten to undermine these projections.

Within this landscape, Morgan Stanley favors exposure to gold, silver, and COMEX copper. The bank anticipates renewed U.S. tariff hikes on multiple nations starting August 1, potentially inflating industrial input costs for steel, aluminum, and copper sectors. While Chinese metal demand remains resilient according to export data, this strength may wane as temporary tariff suspensions expire. Current trends should persist through 2025, with COMEX copper, gold, and silver retaining upside potential—though platinum prices are expected to stabilize after surging roughly 50%.

Morgan Stanley has raised its Q4 2025 gold target to $3,800/oz, citing central bank demand, weakening dollar dynamics, ETF inflows, and enduring geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties. Jewelry demand could also rebound as consumers acclimate to higher prices. The bank forecasts average prices of $3,500/oz in Q3 2025, $3,800/oz in Q4 2025, and $3,500/oz in Q1 2026, followed by $3,313/oz for full-year 2026 before declining to $2,625/oz in 2027 and $2,500/oz in 2028. However, risks linger regarding final tariff levels on specific metals and nations, alongside Section 232 investigation outcomes for critical minerals.

Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its projection for gold hitting $3,700/oz by year-end and $4,000/oz by mid-2026, underpinned by central bank acquisitions, ETF inflows, and substantial off-balance-sheet purchases. The investment bank observed that speculative position unwinding has created space for structural buying, with gold ETF flows and robust central bank accumulation emerging as new demand pillars. Goldman's real-time monitoring indicates central banks and non-U.S. London OTC entities demanded 31 tonnes in May—far exceeding the pre-2022 monthly average of 17 tonnes. Year-to-date central bank purchases total 77 tonnes, slightly below the bank's initial 80-tonne forecast for H1 2026. Goldman reiterated its long-gold recommendation, noting persistent off-balance-sheet buying continues bolstering global prices.

UBS Group, while viewing recent White House tariff escalations as negotiation tactics, still advocates gold as a policy-risk hedge. UBS Wealth Management analysts project a baseline scenario where effective U.S. tariffs stabilize near 15%—less than half the recently announced 30%-35% rates—supporting continued S&P 500 gains. They anticipate a U.S.-Europe trade agreement before August 1 or a deadline extension, with Mexico unlikely to impose retaliatory tariffs.