Spot gold prices have climbed back above $5,000, while spot silver prices have regained the $80 level.

After breaking through $5,000 during Asian trading hours on February 9, spot gold continued to rise, closing near $5,060 per ounce. However, prices pulled back again after the market opened on February 10, briefly falling below $5,000. At the time of writing, gold was down 0.38% at $5,039.812 per ounce. Spot silver also experienced significant volatility, surging 8% on February 9 to breach $83, before trading at $82.338 per ounce at the time of writing, down 1.24%.

This week marks a critical period for major U.S. economic data releases, including non-farm payrolls and CPI figures. Market expectations suggest the U.S. may release weak employment reports, thereby increasing anticipation for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Brian Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, stated in an interview on February 9 that he expects employment data to soften but emphasized this should not cause alarm. This news triggered a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar index, directly boosting precious metals prices that day. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted he is beginning to see doubts about confidence in the U.S. dollar, while Fed Governor Michelle Bowman commented that the current scale of the dollar's decline has not yet materially impacted monetary policy.

Jason Hunter, an analyst at J.P. Morgan's global market strategy team, indicated that the recent gold price movement represents a short-term reversal after a spike and retreat, constituting a phase of adjustment to digest preceding rapid gains rather than signaling the end of the long-term bull market. He forecasts that gold will enter a wide fluctuation range in the coming weeks or months, with the $5,000 level and the $5,100-$5,150 zone forming near-term resistance. However, the core logic supporting the gold bull market—currency depreciation—remains unchanged, with the dollar index continuing to trade below the 100 level serving as a key long-term bearish signal.

Compared to gold, silver's price action has been more volatile. "People are drawn to the attraction of this thing," said Rhona O'Connell, an analyst at StoneX, noting that silver's "historic sell-off" has instead enhanced its appeal, with some investors viewing it as an opportunity to buy at lower prices.

Spot silver prices fell to near $64 per ounce last Friday, nearly halving from the late-January high of $121, before rebounding sharply to $78 by February 10. "Market sentiment has been extremely heated, and this self-fulfilling momentum has taken over," O'Connell added. "It is reinforcing itself."

The extreme volatility has deterred many institutional investors from silver, while retail investors continue to enter the market. Data from Vanda Research shows that as silver prices plummeted, retail investors poured $430 million into the largest silver ETF, SLV, over six trading days ending last Thursday. This included over $100 million on January 30 alone, when silver fell 27%, marking its largest single-day decline in history.

Bai Suna, chief precious metals analyst at Guomao Futures, highlighted five key reasons behind silver's renewed strength. First, selling pressure on tech stocks has temporarily eased, restoring market liquidity and benefiting gold and silver. Second, an unexpected rise in U.S. consumer confidence in February further alleviated concerns about tightening dollar liquidity, weakening the dollar index and supporting precious metals prices. Third, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to provide a safe-haven boost. Fourth, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month, with a slightly larger purchase in January, bolstering confidence in precious metals. More importantly, rising lease rates for London spot silver and declining inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX indicate persistently tight physical supplies, limiting downside price pressure.

Shanghai Midterm Futures analysis points out that, overall, short-term factors for precious metals are mixed. Bargain-hunting and silver delivery risks provide support, while margin requirement hikes and strong U.S. economic fundamentals cap upside potential, likely leading to wide-ranging fluctuations. Gold enjoys relatively solid support under the long-term narrative of de-dollarization, while silver may exhibit greater price elasticity and volatility risks.

Bai Suna added that ahead of the Lunar New Year, market sentiment may turn cautious, with precious metals prices expected to gradually enter a range-bound phase. However, the medium to long-term bullish rationale remains intact, with underlying fundamentals still robust.

"Against the backdrop of potential Fed rate cuts within the year, persistent global geopolitical uncertainties, and de-dollarization trends driven by massive U.S. debt, demand for allocations from global central banks, institutions, and households is expected to continue. Precious metals prices still have room to rise, and stabilization will present favorable medium to long-term allocation opportunities," Bai Suna stated.