According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on October 15, the overall operation of the consumer market in September remained stable, with the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.1% month-on-month. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 1% year-on-year. What signals can be extracted from the latest price data?

Signal 1: "Core Stability" with Year-on-Year Increase of 1% – The increase in core CPI has expanded for the fifth consecutive month in September, marking the first return to 1% year-on-year growth in nearly 19 months. Liu Fang, a researcher at the Market and Price Research Institute of the China Macroeconomic Research Institute, noted, "As relevant policies to boost domestic demand and promote consumption continue to show effectiveness, the supply-demand structure is improving, and positive price changes are emerging in certain areas, which effectively supports overall price stability." The month-on-month increase in CPI rose to 0.1% from a flat position last month. Among these, food prices increased by 0.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI rise, with seasonal price increases noted for fresh vegetables, eggs, fresh fruits, lamb, and beef.

On October 15, residents in Handan, Hebei Province, were seen shopping at a supermarket. In the vegetable trading area of Shouguang Agricultural Products Logistics Park in Shandong, wholesale vegetable dealer Zhao Shoutian commented, "In August, zucchini was about 2.58 yuan/kg, but after September, the price rose to 3.32 yuan/kg due to continuous rainfall affecting production." Fan Libo, manager of the logistics park's vegetable management department, explained that since September, northern supplies have been influenced by weather factors, along with demand for festive stock and gifts during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival periods, leading to price increases for vegetables and fruits. Year-on-year, the CPI decreased by 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. The year-on-year decrease in the CPI is mainly attributed to the "tail effect." In the current month’s CPI change of -0.3%, the tail effect is approximately -0.8 percentage points, while new price influences this year are around 0.5 percentage points.

Signal 2: PPI Reflecting the Effectiveness of National Unified Market Construction – The Producer Price Index (PPI), which serves as a leading indicator, continued to exhibit positive changes. In September, the PPI decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the urban division of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed that aside from the influence of last year's lower comparative base, the continuous effects of macroeconomic policies are becoming apparent as the construction of a unified national market deepens, which has led to a reduction in the year-on-year decline in prices in relevant industries. "The effectiveness of capacity management in certain sectors is becoming evident, and the market competition order is continuously improving," said Dong. Recently, the improvement in the supply-demand structure has stabilized prices in certain industries significantly. In September, coal processing prices increased by 3.8% month-on-month, while prices in the coal mining and washing industry rose by 2.5%, and black metal smelting and rolling industry prices increased by 0.2%, all continuing to rise for two consecutive months.

Signal 3: New Driving Forces Promote Dual Upgrades in Industrial Consumption – Currently, emerging industries in China are thriving, and the vitality of new consumption formats and models is being unleashed, sustaining positive price changes in relevant areas driven by new forces. The development of the industry is "turning new" – from "flying cars" becoming a reality to humanoid robots showcasing exciting soccer games, disabled individuals playing the piano with robotic "dexterous hands"… The latest achievements in the smart industry were showcased at the World Intelligent Industry Expo 2025 held in Chongqing in September. As China's modern industrial system accelerates construction, development trends toward high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing are positive, steadily expanding market demand, leading to year-on-year price increases in related industries. In September, prices in aircraft manufacturing rose by 1.4%, and prices in the manufacturing of electronic special materials increased by 1.2%.

The consumption market is demanding quality – with a population exceeding 1.4 billion and a per capita GDP surpassing $13,000, based on international experience, consumption growth is gradually shifting from "quantitative expansion" to "qualitative enhancement." As the effects of policies to boost consumption continue to appear, demand for quality and upgraded consumption is being released. In September, the prices of manufacturing for decorative arts and ceremonial products surged by 14.7%, prices of sports balls increased by 4%, and prices of nutritional foods rose by 1.8%. "With the continued effectiveness of policies to expand domestic demand and boost consumption, the development in certain consumer goods and manufacturing industries is expected to further strengthen, gradually improve the supply-demand relationship in the market, and enhance economic circulation, thereby supporting price trends in relevant industries," Liu said.