Overnight on February 25, the spot price of gold in London showed weak fluctuations, while COMEX gold futures fell by 1.25% to $5,160.50 per ounce. SHFE gold closed down 0.30%. The U.S. dollar index rebounded, approaching a four-week high, as gains in technology stocks boosted U.S. equities, while gold and crude oil prices declined. The U.S. President is scheduled to deliver the State of the Union address at 10:00 AM Beijing time on Wednesday, with key topics expected to include tariffs, immigration, and geopolitical issues, which may influence short-term gold price movements.

A 10% global tariff policy by the United States took effect on Tuesday. The current administration has utilized Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to bypass Congress and impose a 10% import tariff globally, with a duration of 150 days. Whether the tariff rate will further increase to 15% remains undetermined. However, the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff actions has heightened global economic instability. During the Spring Festival holiday, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration's large-scale tariff hikes under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful. This decision has undermined the credibility of the Trump administration and may negatively impact the midterm elections. Consequently, future tariff policies and geopolitical developments have become key market focal points, with geopolitical events in particular having been a major driver of gold price increases during the holiday period.

Post-holiday, gold is expected to consolidate around $5,000 per ounce through high-level, wide-ranging fluctuations, gradually absorbing the rapid gains seen earlier. Market participants are advised to monitor developments in U.S.-Iran tensions and await clearer signals from the next round of interest rate cut expectations. A strategy of "phased allocation and long-term holding" is recommended, positioning gold as a significant component of asset portfolios.