Daiwa has released a report indicating a 2% downward revision of its earnings per share forecast for Samsonite 01910 for 2025. However, the firm has raised the 2026 earnings forecast by 3%, anticipating stronger recoveries in Asian and North American markets. The firm maintains a "Hold" rating due to a lack of catalysts and low visibility at present. Nevertheless, Daiwa believes that global travel demand will continue to support a stronger recovery in 2026, raising the target price from HKD 15 to HKD 16.

According to the report, due to a low base effect, Daiwa expects Samsonite's revenue decline in Q3 to narrow to 1.4%, in line with management’s guidance. The firm also anticipates improvements in Tumi's overall performance, while American Tourister remains the weakest-performing brand.

Due to changes in regional structure and operating deleveraging, adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to remain under pressure. The report forecasts a year-on-year decline in gross margin and adjusted EBITDA margin of 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points, respectively, bringing them to 58.6% and 17%. Regarding the turnaround in the Indian business by 2026, Daiwa remains cautiously optimistic, as major competitors in the local market are expected to transition to a more rational competitive environment following significant restructuring. The firm also believes that the dual listing plan in the U.S. is still progressing, but it may not be realized until mid-2026 at the earliest.