Abstract

Mueller Water Products will release its fiscal Q1 2026 results on February 04, 2026 Post Market, with consensus pointing to year-over-year growth driven by resilient demand and margin discipline.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, Mueller Water Products’ internal projections indicate revenue of $314.70 million, an estimated year-over-year increase of 8.45%, with expected EBIT of $56.32 million and EPS of $0.26, alongside an improving trend versus last year. The company’s topline outlook is supported by Water Flow Solutions and Water Management Solutions, with management projecting positive momentum; Water Flow Solutions is highlighted as the most promising segment, supported by prior-year segment revenue of $824.90 million and demand expansion year over year.

Last Quarter Review

Mueller Water Products reported last quarter revenue of $380.80 million, gross profit margin of 37.84%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $52.60 million, net profit margin of 13.81%, and adjusted EPS of $0.38, with year-over-year growth in each metric. One key highlight was stronger-than-expected profitability as EBIT reached $78.90 million, beating estimates by $4.55 million, while EPS of $0.38 exceeded projections by $0.04. Main business highlights: Water Flow Solutions generated $824.90 million and Water Management Solutions contributed $604.80 million in revenue in the prior year, reflecting a well-balanced mix with the Water Flow Solutions segment gaining share on sustained order growth year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Water Flow Solutions

Water Flow Solutions remains central to quarterly performance, with growth tied to municipal and replacement demand across valves, hydrants, and related flow-control equipment. The quarter’s revenue projection implies mid-single to high-single-digit expansion versus last year, supported by stable backlog and pricing retention. Margin preservation depends on product mix and continued manufacturing efficiency; with gross margin last quarter at 37.84%, incremental cost relief from materials and freight should help sustain a gross margin near the high-30% range if mix remains favorable. Watch order cadence from municipal customers, which typically drives shipment timing, and any seasonal pull-forward or deferral around winter weather that can influence in-quarter deliveries.

Most Promising Business: Water Flow Solutions

Among segments, Water Flow Solutions is positioned to show the strongest year-over-year contribution this quarter, given its prior-year scale of $824.90 million and a diversified product portfolio that benefits from replacement cycles and compliance-related upgrades. The forecasted revenue trajectory suggests steady growth, underpinned by pricing actions taken last year and improved lead times that can unlock deferred demand. Execution on manufacturing throughput and on-time delivery will be critical to converting backlog into revenue, while a stable municipal funding environment should provide tailwinds. Any incremental wins in large distribution programs or multi-year contracts can enhance visibility beyond this quarter.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Stock performance will hinge on conversion of the revenue pipeline into reported sales, progress on operating leverage, and the durability of the margin profile. Investors will look closely at the relationship between EBIT of $56.32 million and EPS of $0.26 to gauge whether cost control offsets potential labor and logistics variability. The interplay between gross margin and net margin will also matter; last quarter’s net margin of 13.81% sets a baseline, and sustaining or improving this level would support valuation metrics. Additionally, commentary on demand trends across municipalities and non-residential end markets, as well as any signals on pricing or materials costs, will frame expectations for subsequent quarters.

Analyst Opinions

The prevailing view among institutions leans cautiously bullish, centered on consistent revenue growth and stable margins into fiscal Q1 2026. Analysts who are constructive highlight the estimated revenue of $314.70 million, EBIT of $56.32 million, and EPS of $0.26, noting the year-over-year expansion implied by the company’s forecast and the supportive demand environment in core water-infrastructure categories. Positive opinions emphasize backlog quality and pricing retention as margin anchors, while watch items include winter-season shipment timing and execution on cost efficiencies. The bullish case focuses on output benefiting from improved manufacturing flow and logistics normalization, which together support the projected mid- to high-single-digit revenue and EBIT growth trajectory this quarter.