The prices of international gold and silver have once again entered a phase of fluctuation. On March 27, prices for both metals showed an upward rebound by the time of writing.

At the close on March 26, Eastern Time, spot gold fell by 2.79% to $4,379.68 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures dropped 3.85% to $4,376.90 per ounce. Spot silver declined by 4.38% to $68.06 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures decreased by 6.22% to $68.12 per ounce.

Consequently, on March 27, the price of Chow Sang Sang's pure gold jewelry was quoted at 1,364 yuan per gram, down 40 yuan from the previous day's 1,404 yuan. Lao Miao Gold's pure gold jewelry was priced at 1,365 yuan per gram, a decrease of 45 yuan from 1,410 yuan. Lao Feng Xiang's pure gold jewelry was listed at 1,368 yuan per gram, falling 40 yuan from 1,408 yuan.

Despite ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions and economic institutions warning of conflict risks, news of the U.S. extending a pause on strikes against Iran and smooth progress in negotiations eased safe-haven demand. Combined with uncertainty surrounding major central banks' monetary policies, this put downward pressure on precious metal prices.

Analysts from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group noted, "Since the outbreak of the war, gold prices have still fallen by approximately 15%, primarily due to rising inflation expectations driven by higher energy prices. This has reduced the likelihood of interest rate cuts and increased the possibility of monetary policy tightening. Furthermore, persistent outflows from ETFs have dampened market sentiment, leaving gold prices caught between geopolitical uncertainty and shifting macroeconomic expectations."

Data research firm Vanda estimates that global gold ETFs have experienced outflows of approximately $10.8 billion since the war began.

Moreover, some central banks have started considering selling part of their gold reserves to raise funds. Data shows that as of the week ending March 20, the Turkish central bank's gold reserves decreased from 820.8 tonnes to 771.8 tonnes. Banking sources indicated that this represents the largest weekly decline in Turkey's gold reserves since August 2018, with sales of about 22 tonnes of gold last week.

"Recently, the precious metals market has again been swayed by back-and-forth geopolitical news, leading to a pressured decline," analyzed the manager of the precious metals and new energy research center at Guomao Futures Research Institute. On one hand, market concerns that the U.S. might soon escalate military action against Iran have kept oil prices high, shifting the trading focus back to the interplay between inflation expectations and monetary policy. Currently, markets are increasing bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike within the year, the U.S. dollar index is strengthening again, and precious metal prices are under renewed pressure. On the other hand, the rebound and recovery in precious metal prices over the past two days have reached a temporary resistance level. Short-term upward momentum for precious metals remains lacking, and with bulls and bears contending, bears have regained the upper hand, thereby suppressing prices.

On March 26, local time, international crude oil futures prices rose sharply. The May delivery light crude oil futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $94.48 per barrel, up 4.61%. The May delivery London Brent crude oil futures contract settled at $108.01 per barrel, an increase of 5.66%.

Regarding economic data, the U.S. Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21 increased by 5,000 to 210,000, matching market expectations. Continued claims for the week ending March 14 fell to 1.82 million, the lowest level in nearly two years, indicating continued resilience in the labor market.

In the bond market, U.S. Treasury yields moved higher. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.404%, up 7.8 basis points, while the 2-year Treasury yield reached 3.967%, increasing by 8.6 basis points. Interest rate futures indicate that the market expects the Federal Reserve to have room for approximately 15 basis points of rate hikes within the year.

Bas Kooijman of DHF Capital stated that if U.S. Treasury yields rebound and oil prices surge again, particularly if potential U.S.-Iran negotiations to end the conflict break down, gold could continue to face downside risks. The commodity is likely to remain highly sensitive to diplomatic news and geopolitical developments in the Middle East and their impact on monetary policy expectations.

However, market views still hold that gold possesses long-term investment value.

Alejandro Bondavalli, Senior Investment Manager at Pictet Wealth Management, expressed that the long-term investment value of gold remains solid. Policy and geopolitical uncertainties have not diminished, and 'de-dollarization' continues to be a strategic goal for central banks and investors. Gold still holds investment value for investors. The recent price pullback presents a good opportunity to adjust strategic allocations, and after the current headwinds subside, one can strategically position for a rebound in gold prices.