On February 23, we noted last Friday that escalating geopolitical tensions, the lack of progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations with significant differences remaining, limited advances in U.S.-Iran talks, and increased risks of military conflict have reignited market避险 sentiment, supporting a rebound in gold prices. Short-term technical analysis also indicated a need for gold to recover. Therefore, we recommended focusing on support levels at $5,000 and then $4,980, with resistance at $5,050 and $5,100.
Subsequent trading saw gold stabilize at $5,007 during European hours on Friday before rebounding. After the U.S. market opened, prices continued to rise, encountering resistance at $5,063, followed by a sharp drop to $5,090 where it steadied. Gold then fluctuated higher, breaking through the $5,100 mark near the close and reaching a daily high of $5,107. At Monday's open, gold tested $5,102 before climbing further, hitting a new monthly high of $5,176 before encountering resistance, currently trading around $5,153. Overall, gold's stabilization and rise from the $5,000-$4,980 support zone align with our bullish outlook.
A Wolfinance star analyst highlighted that gold's rebound began last Wednesday, with prices steadily recovering since, reaching a new monthly high intraday. This is primarily driven by intensified geopolitical risks and heightened safe-haven demand. Specifically, although recent PCE data showed persistent U.S. inflation, reducing expectations for a Fed rate cut before June, markets still anticipate two cuts this year, limiting the data's impact on gold. A U.S. Supreme Court ruling against former President Trump's broad tariff policies, declared invalid, was countered by Trump's emphasis on maintaining other tariffs and imposing an additional 10% global tariff on top of existing rates, raising concerns about escalating trade conflicts. Additionally, Middle East instability, stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations, multiple countries urging citizen evacuations from Iran, and potential U.S. military action against Iran on the 23rd or 24th, with reports suggesting Trump might start with limited strikes before escalating, have further boosted避险 sentiment, driving gold higher.
On the daily chart, gold has risen for four consecutive sessions after finding a bottom last week, showing short-term strength. Key support levels include the $5,120 area, where gold previously faced resistance mid-month and near Monday's pullback low, followed by the psychological $5,100 level, which held at the open. Resistance is seen near the intraday high of $5,176, with a break above potentially testing $5,200, and further gains targeting the weekly Bollinger Band upper rail around $5,260. The 5-day MA has formed a golden cross, the MACD is turning upward toward a potential crossover, and both the KDJ and RSI indicators show bullish signals, suggesting room for further advances.
Intraday outlook: Middle East tensions and potential U.S.-Iran military conflict are fueling避险 buying, supporting gold. Trading strategy should adopt a range-bound approach, with support at $5,120 and then $5,000, resistance at $5,176 and $5,200, and extended gains eyeing $5,260.