At a virtual investor conference held on February 20, SK Hynix shared the latest developments in the memory market with Goldman Sachs. The company signaled strongly that the memory industry has fully transitioned into a seller's market. Driven by genuine AI demand and constraints on cleanroom capacity, memory prices are expected to continue rising throughout the year. SK Hynix revealed that its DRAM and NAND inventory has dropped to an extremely low level of only about four weeks of supply and is projected to decline further over the course of the year. More critically, high-bandwidth memory (HBM) production capacity for 2026 is already sold out in advance, while severe shortages in standard DRAM are significantly strengthening suppliers' bargaining power. The supply chain has initiated long-term contract negotiations to secure future supply.
Regarding the highly watched HBM segment, SK Hynix stated clearly that production capacity allocation for 2026 is already finalized. Given the current production schedule, meaningful adjustments to the production lines for HBM and standard DRAM in 2026 will be difficult. The current extreme tightness in supply and demand for standard DRAM provides SK Hynix with greater leverage in negotiations. The company believes this situation "could lead to more favorable terms for its HBM business in 2027."
On capital expenditure, SK Hynix remains disciplined. The company confirmed that this year's capital spending will exceed last year's but emphasized it will "continue to uphold capital expenditure discipline." Investment priorities are clear: the core focus remains on HBM and standard DRAM. For the NAND business, although some investment has resumed (primarily for the transition to 321-layer 3D NAND), its share of total capital expenditure is expected to remain stable, projected in the low double-digit percentage range, with no reckless expansion.
Separately, reports indicate that Samsung is negotiating prices for its latest-generation AI memory chip, HBM4, which are expected to be 20% to 30% higher than the previous generation, with an estimated price of around $700. Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo Markets, stated this indicates supply remains tight in the AI memory chip market, and Samsung has regained pricing power in the high-end chip segment. Bernstein semiconductor analyst Mark Li warned that memory prices are showing a "parabolic" rise. While this will bring substantial profits to Samsung Electronics, Micron Technology, and SK Hynix, other sectors of the electronics industry will bear heavy costs in the coming months.
Industrial Securities stated that, overall, it will be difficult for the memory industry to achieve large-scale, effective supply in 2026. This trend is continuing to affect upstream semiconductor equipment and packaging and testing segments. Domestic memory chip designers, memory module manufacturers, semiconductor equipment, and packaging and testing companies are all expected to benefit. China Merchants Securities noted that since the first quarter of 2026, prices for various memory products have risen sharply quarter-over-quarter. Currently, within the foreseeable range, continued price increases for memory products are anticipated this year. Simultaneously, limited new global supply in 2026 is expected to prolong the memory shortage trend into 2027. With price and demand trends aligning, this year is poised to be a significant period of earnings release for memory companies both domestically and internationally. The sustainability of future market price trends and earnings growth across the supply chain will be a key focus. Attention is recommended on companies within three core segments: memory, equipment, and the broader supply chain.
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