On March 20, after a significant unilateral plunge, gold temporarily halted its decline and began to rebound from the key support level of 4500. The bearish momentum has temporarily subsided after a phase of release, and the market has now entered a phase of range-bound consolidation. The previous sustained unilateral downtrend has temporarily paused. Currently, with the US dollar and US Treasury yields starting to retreat after reaching highs, gold prices have been granted a brief respite. Therefore, for today, our short-term strategy will focus on range-bound trading.
Analyzing market news, although the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish policy stance, the market has largely digested the negative factors. Consequently, the downward pressure on gold prices has begun to weaken. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to support safe-haven demand, which has not completely dissipated. Coupled with continuous gold purchases by global central banks providing a floor, the downside for gold may be temporarily limited. The current short-term trend has shifted from a unilateral decline to a technical rebound and recovery phase, with bulls and bears temporarily in a balanced stalemate. Further clarity is needed to determine the next directional move.
From a technical perspective, gold prices quickly recovered after probing lower levels, forming a valid signal that the decline has halted. The 4-hour chart indicators are gradually improving, and the short-term trend has temporarily moved away from extreme weakness. The core trading range for today's short-term movement is focused between 4550 and 4750. Key strong support levels are identified at 4565, 4580, and 4600, where buying interest has emerged upon multiple tests. On the upside, immediate resistance is observed near 4685, 4730, and 4750. If the rebound encounters resistance around these levels, prices could easily fall back into the lower range for consolidation.
Trading recommendations for the day: Following the触底 (touch bottom), gold is temporarily maintaining a range-bound,探底回升 (bottom-probing and rebounding) pattern. The rhythm is primarily characterized by stabilization at lower levels and a震荡反弹 (oscillating rebound). In the absence of major market-moving news, a unilateral trend is unlikely. Therefore, for short-term operations, it is advisable to initially consider buying on dips. If prices pull back and stabilize around the 4580–4600 support zone, consider initiating light long positions. When the rebound approaches resistance between 4685 and 4730, it would be appropriate to reduce positions.
The gold market is currently in a short-term recovery period following the significant decline. The signal for a halt in the decline is relatively clear, and a short-term range-bound pattern is evident. Avoid chasing rallies or selling into dips; instead, patiently wait for suitable price levels to seize good trading opportunities.