Gf Securities released a research report indicating that since the US-Iran conflict began, "safe-haven trading" has intensified, leading to broad declines in risk assets and significant volatility in global stock markets. Blockades of key energy channels like the Strait of Hormuz have heightened concerns over crude oil supply due to escalating Middle East tensions, causing oil prices to rise rapidly. The surge in oil prices has sparked stagflation fears, prompting a downturn in precious metals, continued strength in the US dollar, and pressure on bonds. Within the A-share market, defensive characteristics are evident, with technology and growth sectors leading the decline while funds flow into stable, defensive sectors such as coal and power. In terms of asset prices, major asset trends in the early stages of both conflicts have been largely consistent, displaying safe-haven trading features. However, precious metals showed stronger performance during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the short term, overall, referencing asset movements during the Russia-Ukraine war, oil prices are expected to remain highly volatile at elevated levels, with major assets maintaining high sensitivity to oil price and war-related information. From a medium-term perspective, as conflict intensity subsides, the market will gradually become desensitized to related information, and various assets will revert to fundamental pricing. Specifically, it is anticipated that crude oil prices may continue to rise gradually in the near term before entering a period of high volatility; gold prices are likely to experience fluctuations in the short term, while a new narrative is needed for long-term direction; geopolitical events are significantly disrupting aluminum supply, potentially driving aluminum prices higher; the US dollar index stands to benefit substantially and may continue to climb; in equity markets, once short-term uncontrollable geopolitical factors dissipate, the market could present the best buying opportunity of the year. Key views from Gf Securities are as follows: Major asset performance since the US-Iran conflict: 1. Safe-haven trading has intensified, risk assets have broadly declined, and global stock markets have experienced significant volatility; 2. Blockades of critical energy passages like the Strait of Hormuz have escalated Middle East tensions, raising crude oil supply concerns and driving rapid oil price increases; 3. Rising oil prices have triggered stagflation worries, leading to a downturn in precious metals, sustained US dollar strength, and bond market pressure; 4. Defensive characteristics are prominent in the A-share market, with technology and growth sectors leading losses and capital flowing into stable defensive sectors like coal and power. Comparison of Russia-Ukraine and US-Iran conflicts: 1. The most critical difference lies in the distinct macroeconomic backgrounds at the outbreak of each conflict. The Russia-Ukraine conflict occurred during a period of high inflation following excessive liquidity, making the inflation path clearer after geopolitical events pushed up energy prices. In contrast, the US-Iran conflict arises amid slowing growth, sticky inflation, and the initiation of interest rate cuts, resulting in more complex transmission paths and expectations. 2. Both the Strait of Hormuz and Russian pipelines are vital energy chokepoints. Although Russian crude faces sanctions, it undergoes "origin laundering" via India or Turkey and can mitigate global supply risks by shifting main crude exports to Asia. However, closure of the Strait of Hormuz represents a rigid shock to energy supply with no alternatives, significantly elevating inflation risks. 3. Regarding asset prices, major asset trends in the early stages of both conflicts were largely similar, exhibiting safe-haven trading characteristics. However, precious metals demonstrated stronger performance during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the short term, overall, referencing asset movements during the Russia-Ukraine war, oil prices are expected to remain highly volatile at elevated levels, with major assets maintaining high sensitivity to oil price and war-related information. From a medium-term perspective, as conflict intensity subsides, the market will gradually become desensitized to related information, and various assets will revert to fundamental pricing. Specifically, it is anticipated that crude oil prices may continue to rise gradually in the near term before entering a period of high volatility; gold prices are likely to experience fluctuations in the short term, while a new narrative is needed for long-term direction; geopolitical events are significantly disrupting aluminum supply, potentially driving aluminum prices higher; the US dollar index stands to benefit substantially and may continue to climb; in equity markets, once short-term uncontrollable geopolitical factors dissipate, the market could present the best buying opportunity of the year. Risk warnings: Tariff negotiations among various parties remain highly uncertain, and trade policies of other economies toward China may change; demand in the US and other overseas economies could further deteriorate; domestic economic growth and stabilization policies may fall short of expectations.