On September 1st, Hong Kong gold stocks rose broadly, with China Silver Group surging over 10%, Zhaojin Mining gaining over 6%, Shandong Gold, Lingbao Gold, Chifeng Gold, and China Gold International rising over 5%, Zijin Mining and Tongguan Gold climbing over 3%, and Everest Gold advancing over 2%.
Changjiang Securities released a research report stating that gold prices have confirmed a breakthrough of the quarterly range, emphasizing the importance of precious metals catch-up. Three catalysts are driving gold price breakthrough: 1) Strengthened rate cut expectations, as Powell released dovish signals at the Jackson Hole symposium, with market expectations for September rate cuts rising to nearly 90%; 2) Return of geopolitical hedging demand, as tensions in the Russia-Ukraine situation briefly intensified hedging needs, and Trump's proposed 50% tariff on India sparked trade friction concerns; 3) Continued central bank gold purchases, with global central banks increasing gold holdings for nine consecutive months, and China maintaining net purchases in July. The firm maintains that around the second round of rate cuts in September, gold stocks may welcome quarterly-level resonance across three dimensions: gold prices, valuations, and style, recommending a switch to increased allocation.