Title

Earning Preview: Church & Dwight revenue is expected to increase by 4.79% this quarter, and institutional views are bearish

Abstract

Church & Dwight will report its quarterly results Pre-Market on January 30, 2026, with expectations centered on year-over-year growth in revenue and earnings as investors weigh margin resilience against recent rating actions.

Market Forecast

Based on currently compiled expectations, Church & Dwight’s revenue for the quarter is estimated at 1.64 billion USD, up 4.79% year over year; EBIT is projected at 278.00 million USD, up 5.17% year over year; adjusted EPS is estimated at 0.84, up 9.19% year over year. The core consumer net sales portfolio remains the dominant revenue contributor, with stable mix and pricing set to support sequential performance and underpin the projected EPS acceleration. The most promising segment is consumer net sales, which generated 1.51 billion USD last quarter; company-level revenue grew 4.97% year over year, positioning the segment to capture the bulk of incremental growth.

Last Quarter Review

Church & Dwight delivered revenue of 1.59 billion USD, a gross profit margin of 45.06%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 182.00 million USD translating to a net profit margin of 11.49%, and adjusted EPS of 0.81, up 2.53% year over year. A notable highlight was earnings outperformance, with adjusted EPS exceeding compiled estimates by 0.07, while EBIT of 270.60 million USD was above expectations. Consumer net sales contributed 1.51 billion USD (95.22% of total) and specialty products contributed 75.80 million USD (4.78% of total); consolidated revenue rose 4.97% year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Consumer Net Sales: Core Performance Drivers

The consumer net sales portfolio remains the centerpiece of Church & Dwight’s quarterly narrative, accounting for 95.22% of last quarter’s revenue at 1.51 billion USD. With consolidated revenue projected to rise 4.79% year over year this quarter, the consumer portfolio’s scale is poised to translate modest top-line growth into EPS leverage, as reflected in the 9.19% year-over-year increase embedded in the 0.84 adjusted EPS estimate. The last-reported gross margin of 45.06% provides a baseline for assessing earnings quality; sustaining or modestly enhancing this level through disciplined pricing, cost control, and mix can support the estimated 278.00 million USD in EBIT, up 5.17% year over year. Promotional spending, trade dynamics, and product mix decisions are likely to be carefully calibrated to protect margin rates while preserving share, especially given the prior quarter’s 11.49% net profit margin. Sequential momentum will also depend on managing retailer orders and inventory normalization without sacrificing price realization, ensuring that volume and mix can collectively deliver the forecast earnings cadence. In this context, margin stewardship across the consumer franchise remains central to validating the expected EPS growth, particularly if revenue trends hold close to the 1.64 billion USD estimate.

Most Promising Segment: Consumer Net Sales Momentum

The consumer net sales segment, at 1.51 billion USD last quarter, stands as the primary engine for growth and the logical source of upside versus expectations. While segment-level year-over-year growth was not disclosed, the company-level year-over-year revenue growth of 4.97% and the current-quarter estimate of 4.79% establish a constructive backdrop for the segment’s contribution. The forecasted 9.19% year-over-year rise in adjusted EPS suggests operating leverage that typically emanates from steady consumer demand, effective pricing architecture, disciplined promotions, and incremental efficiencies. Against that setup, near-term momentum will hinge on whether mix tilts toward higher-margin offerings within the portfolio and whether input-cost stability can be maintained enough to prevent dilution of the 45.06% gross margin base. A clean execution on shelf resets, marketing cadence, and innovation refresh cycles can catalyze incremental share and support the projected EBIT of 278.00 million USD. Put together, the consumer portfolio’s breadth and scale continue to concentrate the opportunity set, making it the most likely driver of a positive earnings surprise if revenue lands at or above the 1.64 billion USD estimate.

Key Earnings Swing Factors This Quarter

Earnings delivery relative to the 0.84 adjusted EPS estimate is the most visible swing factor, given the higher year-over-year growth implied for earnings versus revenue. Margin trajectory will be scrutinized, with investors benchmarking against the last-reported 45.06% gross margin and 11.49% net profit margin; sustaining those levels or showing incremental improvement would lend credibility to the projected 5.17% year-over-year gain in EBIT. Revenue magnitude at the 1.64 billion USD estimate is another pivot point, with modest deviations likely to carry outsize impacts on EPS due to cost absorption and mix sensitivities. The balance between promotional intensity and price realization will play a central role in determining gross margin outcomes, particularly as the company calibrates elasticity management with brand support to avoid margin drift. Execution clarity in management commentary—particularly around price/mix, input-cost environment, and marketing returns—will guide whether the quarter’s cadence aligns with the embedded 9.19% year-over-year EPS growth. Finally, the translation from revenue performance to EBIT and EPS, given disciplined cost stewardship, will be closely watched to validate the expected 278.00 million USD EBIT and preserve visibility into subsequent quarters.

Analyst Opinions

Bearish opinions account for 100.00% of the compiled views during the relevant period, with Barclays maintaining a Sell rating and a price target of 82.00 USD. The stance reflects skepticism about near-term earnings durability relative to the accelerated 9.19% year-over-year EPS growth implied by consensus. The rating suggests heightened sensitivity to margin execution, indicating that any shortfall versus the 45.06% gross margin baseline or 11.49% net margin seen last quarter could challenge the path to the estimated 278.00 million USD in EBIT. Given that last quarter’s adjusted EPS of 0.81 exceeded expectations by 0.07, the bearish case centers less on a lack of execution and more on the difficulty of compounding that outperformance in a quarter where revenue growth is paced at 4.79% year over year. Bearish voices therefore emphasize that the stock’s reaction will hinge on evidence of sustained price/mix strength and cost discipline sufficient to validate the EPS estimate of 0.84; absent that, they expect earnings quality to be questioned and valuation to be reassessed accordingly. Within this framework, the prevailing institutional view is cautious on the quarter’s risk-reward balance, prioritizing margin proof points and the credibility of the projected earnings cadence.