According to Guosen Securities’ research report, the sports outdoor industry showcased accelerated growth in online platforms during the third quarter, while prices displayed a trend of polarization. High-end segments and new IPs coexisted with price reductions in mainstream classic products. Only brands that can meet emerging niche demands or set fashion trends will achieve victories in both sales and profit. With the fourth quarter approaching, which heralds the peak season for the industry, the synergy of holiday promotions and annual new product releases will be key. Emphasis will be on the impact of brand marketing efforts and product innovation.

Key insights from Guosen Securities are as follows:

Q3 shows recovery in growth and continued increase in penetration rates, with footwear sales rebounding. Data from third-party e-commerce shows that in Q3 2025, the sports segment experienced a simultaneous increase in volume and price (sales +6.8%, quantity +4.4%, average price +2.6%). The outdoor category saw double-digit growth (sales +13.8%, quantity +9.8%, average price +3.6%). However, the growth in apparel prices mainly came from segmented categories, with both sports casual wear and athletic shoes showing downward pricing trends. Sports apparel sales saw double-digit increases, while athletic shoes returned to growth, particularly running shoes, which accelerated to high double-digit growth, whereas basketball shoes saw an increased decline.

In terms of channels, Douyin held the largest share, Tmall exhibited impressive growth, and JD maintained stable expansion.

Regarding international brands, Nike continues to face significant adjustment pains, with sales dropping sharply by 12.4% year-on-year and market share down 1.9 percentage points to 8.7%. Douyin remains the top channel for e-commerce. While their apparel segment recorded slight growth, the athletic footwear category showcased a 19.3% increase in running shoes, contrasted by declines of 35%, 26%, and 17% in basketball shoes, casual shoes, and skateboard shoes respectively.

Adidas, despite a slight reduction in average prices, demonstrated substantial revenue growth of 13%, increasing its market share by 0.5 percentage points to 8.1%. Key drivers included rapid growth in the Trefoil clothing series, double-digit growth in running shoes, and breakout retro basketball shoes. Meanwhile, other fashion footwear products saw stable performance amid structural changes.

For domestic brands, there is considerable pressure from price competition, although feedback on new products has been strong. Anta's running shoe specialization showed significant effectiveness, and declines in casual shoes have narrowed. Li Ning maintained stable market share, with new products boosting average prices against the trend, while running shoes grew by over 30% and basketball shoes returned to double-digit growth.

Xtep's market share slightly increased, with running shoe growth accelerating to 19% and leading in the average price for specialized segments, while apparel benefited from a price reduction strategy resulting in double-digit growth. 361 Degrees also saw a minor increase in share, driven by a higher proportion of specialized segments leading to double-digit growth in running shoes, although basketball shoes continued to decline, while casual shoes saw a reduced rate of decrease.

In summary, while the overall growth prospects of the sports outdoor sector remain favorable, there is a distinct trend of polarization in structure.

Growth Comparison: Among sports categories, sports apparel > athletic shoes, running shoes > other athletic shoes; with respect to major brands in the sports category: Xtep > Adidas > 361 Degrees > Li Ning > Anta > Nike.

Year-on-Year Average Price Change Comparison: Sports casual wear > running shoes > sports casual shoes > skateboard shoes > basketball shoes; Li Ning > Adidas > Nike > Xtep > 361 Degrees > Anta.

Both sports apparel and athletic shoes saw average prices decline this quarter, reflecting pressure on demand and heightened competition. However, sports apparel overall grew better than athletic shoes, bolstered by successful operations of high-end apparel brands such as Trefoil and others leading the market. In contrast, the prosperity of running shoes among athletic shoes has been dampened by the retreat of casual fashion footwear.

Differences in growth momentum among brands highlight the influence of brand positioning and the structure of segmented categories (e.g., running shoes generally outperform other athletic shoes, high-end sports apparel outshines mainstream sports apparel), as well as the brands' marketing strategies and product innovation capabilities (e.g., successful new IPs with higher prices and favorable sales growth). Conversely, homogenized products are more susceptible to downward pricing pressures.

In terms of recommended stocks, we suggest Li Ning (02331) for its strong capabilities in launching hit products in the mass sports sector; Anta Sports (02020) for its advantages in multi-brand matrices; and we recommend observing Xtep International (01368) and 361 Degrees (01361) for their sustained growth driven by key running products. Additionally, the core retailer TopSports (06110) and suppliers Shenzhou International (02313) and Huali Group (300979.SZ) can benefit from the new product cycles laid out by international brands.

Risk Warning: Weak macroeconomic conditions; consumer recovery falling short of expectations; international political and economic risks; significant fluctuations in exchange rates and raw material prices.