The US stock issuance market has set a new historical record in the first half of 2026, with blockbuster deals from SpaceX and Alphabet igniting market fervor. Wall Street bankers are now gearing up for an even busier transaction window in the second half of the year.
According to data, the total value of US IPOs and stock offerings, excluding special purpose acquisition companies and other investment vehicles, reached a record $251 billion as of June 26th. This surpasses the previous half-year peak set during the 2021 issuance frenzy.
SpaceX's public listing, valued at $86.2 billion, set a new record for the largest IPO in history. Meanwhile, Google's parent company, Alphabet, completed the largest non-IPO equity transaction of the year with an $85 billion stock offering.
Furthermore, Anthropic is on track to potentially complete a large funding round as early as October this year. Private equity-backed companies are also anticipated to accelerate their entry into the public markets.
Will Connolly, Co-Head of Goldman Sachs' Americas Equity Capital Markets, noted that even excluding SpaceX's IPO, the overall market issuance volume continues to advance rapidly. "This is the first time since 2021 that you can truly say the market is fully active," he stated.
The Driving Force Behind the Surge: AI's Capital Demands
The immense capital requirements for artificial intelligence infrastructure are the primary structural driver of this issuance wave.
Connolly pointed out that capital markets are undergoing a paradigm shift. The need to raise equity capital for AI infrastructure is being met by resilient share price performance and strong investor appetite. Hyperscale AI data center operators continue to raise funds from the market, and the momentum for other financing forms like convertible bonds is also expected to persist.
The performance of newly listed companies has bolstered market confidence. Data shows that, excluding SPACs, the weighted average return for US new listings is close to 16%, roughly double the return of the S&P 500 index over the same period. Companies perceived as beneficiaries of the AI spending wave have been warmly received by investors post-listing.
AI chip designer Cerebras Systems completed a $6.38 billion IPO in May, priced significantly above its already raised range, making it one of the most sought-after tech IPOs this year. To date this year, eleven US companies have raised over $1 billion through IPOs, setting a new record for the period.
Private Equity Exits and Non-Tech IPO Activity
The exit needs of private equity firms are seen as a significant potential source of incremental volume for the second half.
Keith Canton, Head of Global Private Capital Advisory & Solutions at JPMorgan, anticipates that more than a dozen large IPOs exceeding $1 billion could emerge in the second half, with a notable increase in private equity-backed companies. "Some of their portfolio companies are large and high-quality, and a merger exit is no longer the best option. They are expected to gradually move towards the public markets," he said.
On the list of companies preparing to go public, Csquare, a data center company owned by Brookfield, is set to begin a formal roadshow, closely tied to the AI theme. Inspire Brands, owned by Roark Capital, and sandwich chain Jersey Mike's Subs, backed by Blackstone, have both confidentially filed for IPOs and could list soon.
However, companies outside the AI sector still face challenges regarding valuation and pricing. John Kolz, Global Head of Equity Capital Markets at Barclays, noted that for IPO candidates from more traditional industries within PE portfolios, "the core discussion is how to appropriately judge valuation, leverage, and scale to ensure a successful IPO."
Eddie Molloy, Co-Head of Global Equity Capital Markets at Morgan Stanley, also observed that the IPO window, which was expected in recent years to be led by private equity, has actually been driven more by AI capital needs. Some non-AI related transactions are still in a waiting pattern.
Activity Shifted to Q3 as Banks Anticipate Peak
Wall Street maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the second half, but transaction activity is expected to concentrate in the third quarter.
Arnaud Blanchard, Co-Head of Global Equity Capital Markets at Morgan Stanley, stated that given the potential continuation of high-intensity activity, the bank is preparing for a busy Q3. "The fourth quarter is typically a good window, but volatility could emerge around the midterm elections, so second-half activity is likely to be front-loaded into the third quarter," he explained.
Two main uncertainties affect the timing window. The first is the direction of Federal Reserve policy—markets have priced out expectations for rate cuts this year, with traders even starting to prepare for potential hikes in the coming months. The second is the November midterm congressional elections. Both factors will influence issuers' choices regarding their timing.
In upcoming transactions, South Korean memory chipmaker SK Hynix's planned US listing of approximately $29 billion could serve as a major catalyst to kick off the third quarter.
Market Risks Persist, OpenAI Delay Signals Caution
The market is not without concerns. Last week saw volatility in AI-related stocks, partly triggered by news that OpenAI's IPO plan was delayed until 2027, prompting some investors to reassess AI valuation logic.
Cerebras' stock price gave back its post-IPO gains within a month and is currently hovering near its issue price, highlighting the sustainability risks for high-valuation companies after listing.
Market participants emphasize that maintaining the current issuance pace largely depends on whether the overall performance of AI-related stocks can remain stable and whether investor sentiment can gradually spread to non-AI assets.
Nevertheless, Lisa Clyde, Co-Head of Global Capital Markets at Bank of America, used one word to describe this IPO wave: "Epic." "This will be a year that people talk about for a very long time to come," she said.