Uncertain signals from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding a potential agreement to end the nearly month-long war with Iran have intensified global market volatility, driving gold prices downward. On Thursday, gold fell as much as 3.4%, approaching a technical bear market—typically defined as a 20% decline from recent peaks. However, losses narrowed after Trump announced an extension of the pause on targeting Iranian energy facilities. In a social media post, Trump stated that "negotiations are still ongoing" and insisted that talks are "proceeding very well," contrary to what he called false claims by "fake news media" and others. As of the latest update, spot gold had risen 0.44%, trading near $4,400 per ounce. Since the conflict began nearly a month ago, gold has remained under pressure. At a cabinet meeting on Thursday, Trump criticized U.S. media reports suggesting he was "eager to end the war through diplomacy," asserting instead that it is Iran that is "begging for negotiations." He remarked, "They are terrible fighters but great negotiators, and they are asking for a deal." He later added, "I don't know if we can do it. I don't know if we want to do it," emphasizing that any ceasefire depends on Iran and that U.S. airstrikes will continue in the meantime. He also threatened to escalate military action if talks fail. Shortly after, however, Trump said he would extend the previously promised pause on attacking Iranian energy infrastructure by 10 days, providing temporary relief to global energy markets. Since the Middle East conflict broke out nearly a month ago, gold has fallen more than 15%, largely tracking equity markets while moving inversely to oil prices. Soaring energy costs have heightened inflation risks, leading investors to bet that central banks will keep interest rates steady or even raise them—a headwind for non-yielding gold. Still, prolonged conflict could pose downside risks to the U.S. economy, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to hike rates. Wall Street is downgrading U.S. growth forecasts for this year while raising projections for inflation and unemployment, alongside higher recession probabilities. Meanwhile, oil prices rose on Thursday as hopes for a swift resolution faded. Earlier, Iran confirmed it was awaiting a response after rejecting a 15-point U.S. plan to end the war and presenting its own conditions. According to calculations, approximately 85 metric tons of gold held in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been redeemed since the conflict began. Analysts at Standard Chartered noted that, even at $4,500 per ounce, around 83 tons of holdings remain underwater and could face further liquidation risks. Based on Wednesday's closing gold price, this represents roughly $12 billion. The analysts cautioned, "In the near term, overcrowded positions may remain vulnerable." Notably, in the two weeks following the outbreak of hostilities, Turkey’s central bank sold and swapped about 60 tons of gold, worth over $8 billion, adding to downward pressure on prices. Some investors are using options to bet on further declines. One trader spent more than $100 million earlier this week buying put options on the largest gold-backed ETF. Put options grant the buyer the right to sell at a predetermined price, allowing speculators to wager on price drops and miners to lock in high prices. The cost of buying put options relative to call options has surged to a six-year high this week, indicating increased bearish sentiment among gold investors.