Abstract

Fresh Del Monte Produce will report fourth-quarter results on February 18, 2026 Pre-Market. This preview summarizes consensus forecasts for revenue, margins, net income and EPS, reviews the prior quarter’s performance, and highlights key drivers and risks for the upcoming print alongside prevailing analyst opinions.

Market Forecast

- For the current quarter, the company’s revenue is projected at $1.01 billion, implying a year-over-year change of -2.04%; EBIT is forecast at $22.00 million with a year-over-year change of -23.35%; and EPS is projected at $0.28 with a year-over-year change of -24.32%. Where available, consensus points to softer gross margin and net margin, though specific margin estimates were not provided. - The company’s main businesses last quarter were Fresh and Value-Added Products at $610.50 million, Bananas at $358.00 million, and Other Products and Services at $53.40 million. The Fresh and Value-Added portfolio remains the focal point due to scale and margin sensitivity. The segment with the most promising medium-term trajectory is Fresh and Value-Added Products, driven by pricing and mix initiatives, though near-term revenue growth is not specified in the current forecast set.

Last Quarter Review

- In the previous quarter, revenue was $1.02 billion, gross profit margin was 7.91%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company was -$29.10 million, net profit margin was -2.85%, and adjusted EPS was $0.69, representing a year-over-year change of -10.39%. - A key highlight was EBIT of $39.70 million, exceeding the prior consensus by $4.80 million, despite revenue landing modestly below estimates. - By business line, Fresh and Value-Added Products generated $610.50 million, Bananas generated $358.00 million, and Other Products and Services contributed $53.40 million; year-over-year breakdown by segment was not provided.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business: Fresh and Value-Added Products

Fresh and Value-Added Products remains the financial anchor, representing the largest revenue pool and the segment where price, mix, and supply-chain execution have the greatest influence on consolidated gross margin. The recent quarter’s 7.91% gross margin reflects a compressed spread between procurement and selling prices, suggesting cost pressures in logistics and sourcing. For the current quarter, even a modest improvement in freight and packaging costs could support a sequential margin uptick, although the topline forecast points to revenue softness. The EPS forecast of $0.28 implies lower contribution from the segment compared with the prior quarter’s adjusted EPS of $0.69, underscoring a likely seasonal volume step-down and less favorable mix. Investors should monitor evidence of pricing resilience across core categories, along with any commentary on pass-through efficacy, as these will determine whether EBIT can stabilize around the forecasted $22.00 million.

Most promising business: Value-added and differentiated offerings within Fresh

Within the broader Fresh and Value-Added portfolio, differentiated offerings—such as branded fresh-cut, snacking, and convenience-pack formats—tend to carry structurally higher margins and more stable demand. The strategic emphasis has been on expanding these SKUs and enhancing supply-chain integration to reduce waste and shrink. Despite the revenue forecast signaling a 2.04% year-over-year decline at the consolidated level, this sub-portfolio can cushion consolidated margin if the company sustains disciplined pricing and execution. Margin accretion from these products often counters volatility in commodity-like categories, and stronger promotional cadence into early-year retail resets could aid sell-through. The key variable to watch is whether procurement costs, including transportation, remain benign; if so, EBIT flow-through from value-added products should outperform the broader portfolio.

Stock price sensitivity: Margins, banana pricing dynamics, and operating leverage

Share performance around the print will hinge on the trajectory of gross and net margins given last quarter’s net margin of -2.85% and a gross margin of 7.91%. Small shifts in freight rates, fuel surcharges, and packaging costs tend to have outsized EPS effects due to the company’s low-teens gross margin structure. In bananas, pricing discipline versus volume retention is pivotal; while the category contributed $358.00 million last quarter, industry pricing can tighten quickly on supply swings. On operating leverage, a revenue base near $1.01 billion leaves limited room for overhead absorption; achieving or beating the $22.00 million EBIT estimate will likely require better-than-anticipated gross margin capture or tight SG&A control. Investors will scrutinize commentary on contracts, hedges, and any incremental restructuring or productivity actions to assess whether margin headwinds are abating.

Analyst Opinions

Among recent institutional commentaries, the prevailing tone is cautious, aligning with consensus forecasts that anticipate a year-over-year contraction in revenue (-2.04%), EBIT (-23.35%), and EPS (-24.32%). Institutions that maintain Neutral or Hold stances emphasize uncertainty around near-term margin recovery and the sensitivity of earnings to banana pricing and freight inputs. The majority view underscores the risk that operating leverage may work against earnings should gross margin fail to expand from the recent 7.91% level. In this context, analysts look for signals such as improved procurement terms and continued SKU mix upgrades to higher-margin value-added items before revisiting more constructive stances. Should management point to tangible cost relief or accelerated mix shift, sentiment could improve, but for now, the consensus remains guarded ahead of the report.