Significant developments have emerged concerning two crucial global shipping routes. Citing Iranian media reports on the 25th, it was stated that Iran might open a new front in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. An unnamed Iranian military source indicated that if adversaries attempt a ground operation against Iranian islands or mainland, or exert naval pressure in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, Iran will initiate a new conflict zone in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Separately, the Iranian military stated on the 25th that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not revert to its previous state, with future developments now under Iran's control. Any parties associated with hostile forces are barred from passage, with transit permissions to be determined solely by Iran. On the same day, a spokesperson for the Iranian armed forces' central command announced that, following the reported destruction of all US military bases in the Middle East, some US commanders and soldiers have left their bases and are hiding in external locations. Iranian forces are currently conducting search operations to apprehend them. The spokesperson called on residents of regional countries to provide information and urged the expulsion of US forces from the area for their own safety.
These announcements signal that tensions surrounding Iran remain extremely high, causing sharp fluctuations in oil markets. Overnight, West Texas Intermediate crude pared losses to around 1%, after having plummeted more than 6% earlier. During early Asian trading hours, WTI crude continued its rebound, rising 0.96% to $91.19 per barrel.
Meanwhile, South Korean equities experienced a significant sell-off in early trading, with the benchmark index falling nearly 1.70% at one point, influenced by a sharp decline in the US storage sector overnight. The losses were later trimmed, with the KOSPI index down 1.09%. In contrast, Japanese stocks opened higher and extended gains, with the Nikkei 225 index rising 0.73%.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, serving as a critical chokepoint linking the Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean Sea, and Indian Ocean—often described as a "maritime corridor" for Europe, Asia, and Africa. The Iranian military source claimed that Iran has both the will and capability to threaten navigation through this strait. This follows a statement from a Houthi political official suggesting the group might consider blocking the strait in support of Iran, targeting only vessels from nations involved in attacks on Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine.
Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian armed forces spokesperson emphasized that the rules of passage are being redefined. He stated that the US and Israel are "trapped," with the destruction extending beyond military bases to the order they established. Earlier, Iran's permanent mission to the UN issued a statement assuring safe passage for vessels from non-belligerent nations. A separate communication from the Iranian foreign ministry, circulated to International Maritime Organization members, clarified that ships from non-hostile countries not involved in aggression against Iran, and which adhere to published safety regulations, can secure safe passage through coordination with Iranian authorities. However, vessels belonging to the US, Israel, or other parties involved in hostile actions are denied innocent passage rights.
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for global oil shipments. As the only sea route out of the Persian Gulf, it facilitates the transit of over one-quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade and approximately one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas shipments. The US Energy Information Administration estimates that about 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through the strait in 2024. Since the escalation of US-Israel-Iran tensions, shipping through this crucial energy gateway has been severely disrupted, with commercial vessel transits dropping by 95% since March compared to pre-conflict levels.
The UN Secretary-General expressed grave concern on the 25th, warning that the ongoing Middle East conflict, now in its fourth week, is "spinning out of control" and risks triggering a wider war, exacerbating humanitarian suffering, and causing deeper global economic shocks. He reiterated the necessity of respecting navigation rights and freedom of passage through key maritime channels like the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting that prolonged closure impedes the transport of oil, gas, and fertilizers during a critical global planting season.