Crude oil recorded its first consecutive weekly decline of the year, as traders assessed the potential for OPEC+ to increase supply, progress in US-Iran nuclear talks, and recent broad market weakness. Aluminum prices fell following reports that the US may plan to scale back some steel and aluminum tariffs. Gold prices advanced, with traders increasing bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts after data indicated moderate inflation, while some investors bought the dip following Thursday's significant sell-off.

Crude Oil: WTI Sees First Back-to-Back Weekly Drop of the Year as Traders Weigh Iran Situation and OPEC+ Supply Increase Outlook Crude oil experienced its first two-week losing streak this year. Market participants are evaluating the prospect of OPEC+ potentially expanding supply, developments in US-Iran nuclear negotiations, and the recent overall softness in markets. WTI declined 1% for the week, closing largely unchanged on Friday. The US has dispatched an additional aircraft carrier to the Middle East as a precaution should nuclear talks with Iran fail to yield an agreement. "If we don't make a deal, we will need it," stated the US President at the White House, adding that he believes the negotiations will ultimately succeed. Traders are closely monitoring whether tensions between Washington and Tehran will escalate, as this could pose a threat to supplies originating from the Middle East. Earlier, oil prices declined after OPEC+ delegates indicated that members believe there is room to restore production increases in April, as concerns about oversupply are viewed as exaggerated. The delegates noted that the group has not committed to any specific course of action and has not initiated formal discussions ahead of the March 1st meeting. Crude oil futures markets fell for a second consecutive week, ending a rally that had persisted since early 2026. Previous rounds of geopolitical tensions, including the US-Iran standoff, had provided support for oil prices. Trading activity may thin ahead of the US Presidents' Day holiday, potentially amplifying price fluctuations. WTI March futures settled 0.1% higher at $62.89 per barrel. Brent April futures settled 0.3% higher at $67.75 per barrel.

Base Metals: Aluminum Prices Decline Amid Reports US Plans to Scale Back Some Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Aluminum prices decreased after reports surfaced suggesting the US may be planning to reduce the scope of certain steel and aluminum tariffs. London aluminum prices initially plunged as much as 2.7% following reports that the administration was working to narrow the application of broad tariffs on steel and aluminum products, although the US Treasury Secretary later downplayed reports of potential tariff reductions. The US President had doubled steel and aluminum import tariffs to 50% last June. These tariffs, and the uncertainty surrounding their future direction, have disrupted metal trade in both US and global markets. At the close, LME copper was essentially flat at $12,881.0 per metric ton. LME aluminum fell 0.73% to $3,077.5 per metric ton. LME nickel declined 2.55% to $16,984.0 per metric ton. LME zinc dropped 1.08% to $3,337.5 per metric ton.

Precious Metals: Gold Prices Advance Gold prices moved higher as traders increased their wagers on Federal Reserve rate cuts following the release of data showing moderate inflation. Some investors engaged in bargain-hunting after the sharp sell-off on Thursday. Relatively tame US January inflation figures alleviated concerns about a more significant uptick in prices, bolstering market expectations that the Fed will implement interest rate cuts. Following the data release, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note declined, and swap traders priced in approximately a 50% chance of a third rate cut by December. This propelled gold prices to gain as much as 2.5% during the session. Lower interest rates typically benefit non-yielding assets like gold. "The overall backdrop remains one of elevated volatility after significant long liquidation in precious metals this week, but today's move suggests the pullback may have been overdone, with dip-buying and position adjustment providing support," stated a commodity strategist at ING Bank. As of 5:27 PM New York time, spot silver was up 2.83% at $77.4148 per ounce. Spot gold was up 2.43% at $5,042.04 per ounce.