According to analysis by GLMS Securities, air conditioner shipments in January 2026 showed double-digit year-on-year growth, influenced by the timing shift of the Lunar New Year holiday. Projections based on February production schedules from industry data indicate that the cumulative decline in both domestic and export sales for January-February has narrowed compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. Looking forward, export sales are expected to reach a preliminary inflection point as the base effect diminishes. Domestic demand remains weakly stable, while rising costs may lead to improved industry structure and pricing outlook. Since the third quarter of 2025, leading manufacturers have seen an upward trend in export orders, with strong original brand manufacturing momentum and advanced capacity planning, suggesting a recovery phase that may exceed linear expectations.

Key data from industry sources for January 2026 shows air conditioner production at 19.93 million units, up 19.52% year-on-year, with sales reaching 19.85 million units, an increase of 11.92%. Domestic sales accounted for 8.26 million units, rising 14.53%, while exports totaled 11.59 million units, up 10.13%. Inventory at the end of the period stood at 14.89 million units, down 10.93% year-on-year. By manufacturer, sales performance varied: MIDEA GROUP saw a 21.75% increase (domestic sales +47.50%, exports +6.51%); GREE ELECTRIC APPLIANCES reported a 2.67% rise (domestic +1.67%, exports +4.17%); HAIER SMARTHOME grew 2.12% (domestic +35.92%, exports -38.37%); and HISENSE HA increased 19.21% (domestic +58.54%, exports +4.55%).

The Lunar New Year timing effect contributed to a sequential improvement in domestic sales, with January shipments up 15% year-on-year. Compared to periods with similar holiday timing in 2024 and 2021, the compound annual growth rates for domestic shipments were +6% and +5%, respectively. Based on February production schedules, domestic sales for January-February are projected to decline 12% year-on-year, an improvement from the 29% drop in Q4 2025, indicating a narrowing decline as the base lowers. Actual January domestic sales growth exceeded earlier production forecasts. Retail data showed positive two-year compound growth for leading brands' installation cards, with overall channel retail volume up 13%, broadly aligning with shipment trends.

Looking ahead, domestic sales rose 9% year-on-year in January-February 2025, with March and April up 3% and 4%, respectively. With a low base in the off-season and continued replacement demand, domestic sales are expected to improve steadily. Manufacturer performance diverged in January: MIDEA GROUP, GREE ELECTRIC APPLIANCES, and HAIER SMARTHOME saw domestic sales increases of 48%, 2%, and 36%, respectively, while HISENSE HA and AUX GROUP changed +59% and -42%. Due to scheduling variations from the holiday timing, cumulative January-February data provides a clearer picture. MIDEA GROUP continued its share gains from December, with the top two manufacturers' domestic shipment concentration rising 5.2 percentage points year-on-year for the second consecutive month. HAIER SMARTHOME maintained upward momentum, increasing its domestic shipment share by 2.7 percentage points. Among second-tier brands, HISENSE HA performed well, while AUX GROUP, TCL, and CHIGO experienced share declines. In retail, GREE ELECTRIC APPLIANCES' online retail share rose 2.3 percentage points, showing continued marginal improvement. Rising costs and weakly stable demand conditions favor industry concentration, supporting a cautiously positive outlook for competitive dynamics.

Export sales grew 10% year-on-year in January, compared to 17% in the same period of 2025. Projected January-February exports are expected to decline 7% year-on-year, against a high base of +31%, yet the decline has narrowed. Scheduled production for March and April indicates export changes of -7% and +3%, respectively, with corresponding bases of +15% and flat. As the base lowers, a preliminary inflection point approaches. Recent uncertainties in U.S. tariff rulings have not fully clarified the outlook, but pressure may ease. The potential impact of U.S. interest rate cuts remains unrealized, while export recovery trends in refrigerators and washing machines are gradually firming. Air conditioner exports are expected to converge toward mid-to-high single-digit growth after digesting the high base. Leading manufacturers have seen sustained recovery in export orders since Q3 2025, with strong OBM growth, suggesting the repair phase may outperform linear projections.

In terms of investment targets, white goods stocks are at historically low relative valuations, offering high quality and dividends. Continued recommendations include MIDEA GROUP, HAIER SMARTHOME, HISENSE HA, and GREE ELECTRIC APPLIANCES. Risks include sharp increases in raw material costs, tariff uncertainties, and external demand volatility.