Title

Earning Preview: Geron this quarter’s revenue is expected to increase by 10.43%, and institutional views are bullish

Abstract

Geron Corporation will report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results on February 25, 2026 Pre-Market, with the market looking for a modest sequential revenue uptick, stable gross profitability off a strong prior-quarter base, and a continued narrowing in losses per share as commercialization scales.

Market Forecast

The current quarter’s consensus embedded in recent forecasts points to total revenue of $50.42 million, implying 10.43% year-over-year growth, and adjusted EPS around -$0.03, an estimated 30.01% year-over-year improvement; EBIT is projected at -$24.02 million, an estimated 23.66% year-over-year improvement. While no formal gross margin or net margin forecasts are available, last quarter’s gross margin of 53.18% and net margin of -39.02% provide the baseline for sequential comparison when results are released.

The main business is concentrated in product sales, which should continue to drive top-line momentum and operating leverage as scale advances from last quarter’s level. The most promising revenue engine remains product sales at $47.17 million in the prior quarter, representing 99.87% of quarterly revenue, with company-wide revenue up 67.05% year-over-year in that period.

Last Quarter Review

Geron Corporation delivered last quarter revenue of $47.23 million, a gross margin of 53.18%, GAAP net loss attributable to the parent company of $18.43 million, a net margin of -39.02%, and adjusted EPS of -$0.03, with revenue up 67.05% year-over-year and adjusted EPS improving 25.00% year-over-year. A notable highlight was the strong gross profitability achieved during the initial commercialization phase, supporting the view that cost absorption is improving as volumes scale. The main business highlight was product revenue of $47.17 million, accounting for virtually all quarterly sales, alongside company-wide revenue growth of 67.05% year-over-year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business trajectory and margin path

The main business remains defined by product sales, which comprised $47.17 million out of $47.23 million last quarter. With the current quarter’s revenue estimate at $50.42 million, the company is expected to post an additional sequential expansion in top line, implying continued demand traction within the core commercial offering. As volumes build, the prior quarter’s 53.18% gross margin becomes an important reference point for whether the business can maintain or expand unit-level profitability in the face of commercialization costs. The degree to which this quarter’s gross margin holds around the recent level will influence the translation of revenue growth into EBIT and EPS improvement, especially given the forecasted EBIT loss narrowing to -$24.02 million with a 23.66% year-over-year improvement embedded in estimates.

At the bottom line, consensus points to adjusted EPS of about -$0.03, reflecting a 30.01% year-over-year improvement. This aligns with a narrative of operating leverage starting to emerge: fixed and semi-fixed expense absorption across cost of sales and operating expenses supports gradual EPS progression, even if the headline figure remains negative. The balance between the revenue ramp and expense discipline will likely be visible in the net margin pathway from the prior quarter’s -39.02%, with investors closely monitoring how mix, pricing, and cost-to-serve trends affect the overall profitability profile in the near term.

Most promising business and growth dynamics

The most promising revenue driver continues to be product sales, which last quarter accounted for 99.87% of the company’s revenue base. The current quarter’s revenue estimate of $50.42 million suggests that the core commercial franchise is expected to add to its base, with the market embedding double-digit year-over-year growth at 10.43%. Management’s previously communicated operating expense discipline for 2025—expecting total operating expenses between $250.00 million and $260.00 million, lowered from earlier guidance—should, if sustained, enhance the durability of the product-led margin profile as the quarter and year progress.

Because product revenue dominates the mix, even modest better-than-expected unit demand or improved access mechanics can produce a visible impact on quarterly results. The sensitivity of both EBIT and EPS to incremental gross profit dollars implies that any upside in volume or realized price can accelerate loss reduction, given limited near-term contributions from other revenue sources. Investors will therefore watch whether this quarter’s reported product revenue and gross margin signal that the strong prior-quarter ratio can be repeated or improved upon, as that sets the tone for the year’s operating leverage story.

Key stock-price drivers this quarter

Three factors appear most likely to influence the stock near the print. The first is the degree of alignment with the revenue estimate of $50.42 million and whether the reported result demonstrates a path to sustain double-digit year-over-year growth. A revenue result that meets or exceeds that estimate can validate the demand runway and lend confidence to the implied EPS improvement trajectory; conversely, any shortfall would raise questions given last quarter’s revenue came in below its estimate by $5.65 million, even as year-over-year growth was strong. The second factor is the gross margin outcome versus the 53.18% baseline from last quarter. Gross margin is a critical indicator of commercial efficiency; stability or expansion at or above that level would bolster the case for operating leverage, while a degradation would complicate the EBIT and EPS trajectory embedded in forecasts.

The third factor relates to operating expense execution and leadership continuity. The company’s previously provided 2025 operating expense framework of $250.00 million to $260.00 million suggests a commitment to expense control that, if reflected in quarterly cadence, can aid EBIT and EPS progression as revenue grows. Leadership changes disclosed on October 13, 2025, including the transition of the Chief Operating Officer and Chief Commercial Officer roles, add a monitoring point for investors on commercial execution continuity during the ongoing scale-up. Any update on the cadence of spending, the commercial infrastructure’s productivity, and the timeline for further commercial milestones will shape how the market extrapolates the current quarter’s results into full-year expectations.

Analyst Opinions

Across the published views in the recent period, the balance of commentary is bullish. Notably, Needham maintained a Buy rating, underscoring confidence in the company’s execution and financial position despite near-term fluctuations in product sell-through. TD Cowen also maintained a Buy rating, reiterating a $4.00 price target and pointing to strategic initiatives and market expansion ambitions that align with the path to scale implied by the current-quarter revenue estimate of $50.42 million and the forecasted improvement in adjusted EPS.

The majority perspective emphasizes that the prior quarter’s 53.18% gross margin is an encouraging indicator of commercial efficiency, providing a firmer base from which the company can drive operating leverage as volumes increase. Analysts supportive of the stock argue that expense control—reflected in the 2025 operating expense expectation of $250.00 million to $260.00 million—adds flexibility and helps translate incremental gross profit into a narrower EBIT loss, consistent with the forecasted -$24.02 million EBIT and its 23.66% year-over-year improvement. They also highlight that adjusted EPS is on a constructive trajectory, with the current-quarter estimate at -$0.03, representing a 30.01% year-over-year improvement, which fits with a thesis of steady progress toward breakeven as the commercial base broadens.

From a positioning standpoint into the print, the bullish camp is focused on whether reported revenue aligns with or surpasses the $50.42 million estimate and whether gross margin sustains near the prior quarter’s level. A result that clears these two markers would reinforce the case for continued loss narrowing and validate the activity levels assumed in current forecasts. These observers further note that last quarter’s year-over-year revenue growth of 67.05% establishes a high watermark of demand momentum, and that maintaining even a portion of that acceleration into this quarter strengthens the narrative of a developing earnings base. Given the absence of published bearish previews in the same time window, the prevailing view among the available institutional notes is supportive, and it is this majority view that frames the market’s posture ahead of the February 25, 2026 report.