Abstract

Ellington Financial LLC will release quarterly results on February 25, 2026 Post Market; this preview synthesizes the latest financial data, current-quarter forecasts, and recent institutional commentary to frame expectations for revenue, margins, net earnings, and adjusted EPS, with special attention to segment trends and near-term stock-price drivers.

Market Forecast

Based on the latest estimates, Ellington Financial LLC is expected to deliver revenue of 48.32 million in the upcoming quarter, implying year-over-year growth of 16.82%. The current-quarter adjusted EPS estimate stands at 0.45, indicating year-over-year growth of 18.87%; there is no explicit forecast disclosed for gross margin or net profit margin.

The company’s core operating engine is anchored by the Longbridge segment, which has recently been the single largest contributor to revenue, and management actions since January signal a continued emphasis on sustaining earnings capacity while optimizing funding costs. The most promising earnings lever remains the investment portfolio, which in the prior quarter contributed meaningfully to top line alongside Longbridge; visibility into year-over-year growth by segment is not disclosed, but mix and capital redeployment will guide momentum.

Last Quarter Review

In the most recent quarter, Ellington Financial LLC reported revenue of 49.72 million (up 47.86% year over year), a gross profit margin of 100.00%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of 36.58 million, a net profit margin of 44.96%, and adjusted EPS of 0.53 (up 32.50% year over year). On a quarter-over-quarter basis, net profit declined by 26.78%, underscoring earnings volatility within the period even as year-over-year trends improved.

A notable operational highlight was the breadth of revenue growth relative to the prior-year quarter, as top line outpaced expectations and supported a healthy adjusted EPS print. By business line, the Longbridge segment accounted for approximately 56.00% of last quarter’s revenue (about 27.84 million), the investment portfolio contributed about 50.91% (approximately 25.30 million), and Corporate/Other reduced total revenue by roughly 6.91% (approximately -3.43 million); year-over-year growth for these segments was not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Longbridge segment

Longbridge has been the company’s primary top-line driver, comprising roughly 56.00% of revenue in the last reported quarter, and it will remain central to this quarter’s narrative. Revenue strength in this segment can translate efficiently to bottom-line contribution, as evidenced by the consolidated 100.00% gross margin and 44.96% net margin reported last quarter, which reflect a model where the mix of net interest, fee income, and realized gains are key. For the quarter to be reported, we expect Longbridge to sustain a large share of aggregate revenue even as the overall top line is forecast at 48.32 million, modestly lower than the prior quarter but higher year over year. Operationally, the company’s priorities since January—maintaining the monthly dividend and optimizing capital via security redemptions and issuance—suggest a focus on stabilizing distributable earnings, which indirectly supports Longbridge’s production capacity and economics. The steadiness of segment economics this quarter will hinge on production volume, realized gain dynamics within its pipeline, and the cost of funding associated with financing activities. Given the quarter’s forecasted adjusted EPS of 0.45 and the historical contribution of Longbridge, we anticipate that this segment will be pivotal in aligning the earnings print with the dividend profile. While quarter-to-quarter fluctuations are possible, the prior quarter’s year-over-year uplift provides a constructive base level, and management’s capital actions since January aim to underpin consistency in the segment’s output. Monitoring segment contribution relative to the company’s reported net margins will be important, as any compression at the consolidated level would likely reflect a shift in mix or an increase in operating or financing costs tied to Longbridge’s activity.

Investment portfolio

The investment portfolio represented roughly 50.91% of revenue last quarter (about 25.30 million), and it remains the most promising lever for incremental earnings power this quarter. The revenue estimate implies a year-over-year increase for the company as a whole, and the portfolio is a likely contributor to that growth as capital is redeployed and repositioned. The company’s recent announcement on January 27, 2026 of an underwritten common stock offering intended to redeem its Series A fixed-to-floating rate cumulative redeemable preferred shares signals a deliberate capital structure optimization; lowering preferred dividend obligations and simplifying the stack can enhance distributable earnings from the portfolio over time. In the near term, there is potential for modest EPS dilution from the equity issuance; however, the net effect can be favorable if the redemption removes a relatively costly layer of capital and the portfolio’s incremental returns exceed the new cost of common equity. The forecasted adjusted EPS of 0.45 incorporates these crosscurrents and, alongside a 16.82% year-over-year revenue estimate, suggests that portfolio returns and valuation marks should be supportive relative to the prior-year quarter. We expect portfolio performance to hinge on execution in asset selection, turnover, and tactically deploying liquidity made available through January’s capital actions. To the extent the portfolio can harvest gains or expand net interest contribution without undue increases in operating cost, consolidated margins could stay resilient and provide upside to the adjusted EPS trajectory. Investors will also key in on how the portfolio’s contributions balance against any negative effect from Corporate/Other, which reduced last quarter’s revenue by approximately 3.43 million; efficient overhead management would further lift portfolio-driven operating leverage.

Key stock-price drivers this quarter

Earnings versus dividend coverage will be a primary stock-price driver after the company maintained its monthly dividend at 0.13 per share on January 9, 2026 and again on February 10, 2026. The degree to which the reported adjusted EPS of the quarter aligns with, or exceeds, the distribution will influence market perception of payout sustainability. Another driver is the net effect of the January 27, 2026 common equity offering and subsequent preferred stock redemption on near-term earnings—investors will weigh short-term EPS dilution against improved long-term funding efficiency. Revenue quality will matter as much as quantity: with last quarter’s gross margin at 100.00% and net margin at 44.96%, any evidence of margin continuity, or improvement, will likely be rewarded. Conversely, last quarter’s 26.78% quarter-on-quarter decline in GAAP net profit sets a high bar for stability; renewed volatility at the bottom line would challenge sentiment even if year-over-year growth remains positive. Mix between Longbridge and the investment portfolio will also be watched closely—if Longbridge contribution remains robust while portfolio returns hold firm, consensus could migrate toward the upper end of current EPS expectations. The company’s ability to translate capital actions into tangible reductions in funding costs across the quarter will be scrutinized and could affect valuation on the day of the release. Finally, any color on realized gains, asset churn, and expense discipline will frame how investors extrapolate the current quarter’s performance into the remainder of the year, especially with revenue trending higher year over year and adjusted EPS estimated to grow by 18.87% from the prior-year period.

Analyst Opinions

From January 1, 2026 through February 18, 2026, the majority of the institutional commentary identified is bullish (bullish vs. bearish: 100% vs. 0%). In early February 2026, Maxim Group reaffirmed its Buy rating on Ellington Financial LLC with a 15.00 price target, reflecting continued confidence in the company’s earnings capacity and capital allocation. This positive stance is directionally consistent with the quarter’s modelled revenue growth of 16.82% year over year and adjusted EPS growth of 18.87% year over year, suggesting that forward earnings power remains supported despite quarter-on-quarter variability in GAAP net profit. The January 27, 2026 underwritten equity offering and intended redemption of the Series A preferred stock add context to the bullish view: while there is potential for near-term dilution, the strategic reduction of costlier preferred obligations can enhance distributable earnings and simplify cash outflows, a net positive over a medium horizon if portfolio returns remain solid. The company’s maintenance of a 0.13 monthly dividend on January 9, 2026 and February 10, 2026 underscores its aim to sustain investor payouts; the forthcoming print will test the alignment between adjusted EPS and the distribution, a key metric that bullish analysts expect to hold up. With last quarter’s revenue at 49.72 million and a net margin of 44.96%, the base of profitability appears sufficient for constructive expectations into the new quarter, provided that consolidated margins do not compress materially. In our synthesis of views, the bullish camp centers on the combination of year-over-year earnings growth, proactive capital structure management, and the durability of contributions from Longbridge and the investment portfolio; these factors collectively support a favorable skew for the upcoming report. Should the company demonstrate progress on translating January’s capital moves into improved funding efficiency along with steady segment performance, the bullish narrative would likely gain additional traction.