A semiconductor research firm has issued a bullish report, countering recent market panic triggered by a South Korean brokerage's downgrade of SK hynix earnings forecasts. The firm maintains that the DRAM business outlook for SK hynix remains robust and frames the current market adjustment as a potential buying opportunity.

SemiAnalysis analyst Ray Wang, in a report titled "Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful," forecasts that SK hynix's blended average selling price (ASP) for DRAM in the second quarter of 2026 will surge approximately 45% quarter-on-quarter, with the DRAM segment's operating profit reaching around 55 trillion won. The report explicitly states that despite recent volatility in the memory sector causing investor concern, SK hynix and other leading memory companies "remain one of the most attractive risk-reward propositions in the semiconductor industry."

Downgrade Sparks Sell-off, But Fundamentals Said to Remain Intact

The recent volatility was ignited by a second-quarter earnings forecast report for SK hynix released by South Korean brokerage KIS on July 13. KIS projected SK hynix Q2 revenue at 80.9 trillion won, up 54% sequentially and 264% year-on-year, with operating profit at 60.4 trillion won, a 61% sequential and 556% annual increase. While these figures are impressive on their own, the issue was that the market consensus expectation was around 65 trillion won for operating profit. KIS's forecast, being roughly 8% below consensus, effectively signaled that expectations were too high.

Following the news, SK hynix's stock price quickly fell over 10%, dropping below the 2 million won mark, representing a roughly 33% pullback from its historical high on June 25. KIS explained the core reason for the profit being below consensus: SK hynix has a high proportion of HBM revenue, and HBM prices are typically locked in via long-term agreements (LTAs), which are relatively fixed and cannot be adjusted sharply upward in the short term like spot market prices. In contrast, standard DRAM and NAND spot prices have higher elasticity and see larger ASP increases during broad market upcycles. KIS forecast Q2 DRAM ASPs rising about 30% sequentially and NAND about 50%, but SK hynix's overall ASP increase was "held back" by its HBM contract pricing.

KIS concurrently lowered its 2026 and 2027 operating profit forecasts by approximately 9% and 11%, respectively. However, the brokerage clarified that this downgrade was a "revision after incorporating assumptions for already-signed LTA prices, not a concern over performance," and maintained its target price of 3.8 million won and an Overweight rating.

Contrasting Analysis: 55 Trillion Profit, Spot Price Surge Seen as Key Driver

The SemiAnalysis report directly refutes the above-mentioned pessimistic sentiment. The firm states that despite making revisions to pricing methodology and noting recent market noise, its positive view on SK hynix's 2Q26 DRAM performance "remains unchanged." Its core forecast is for a blended DRAM ASP increase of about 45% quarter-on-quarter and DRAM segment operating profit of approximately 55 trillion won.

SemiAnalysis argues that the roughly 60% sequential increase in DRAM spot prices is sufficient to drive a significant uplift in SK hynix's overall profitability, and that HBM prices, with low single-digit quarterly changes, remain stable and are not a drag. SemiAnalysis also emphasizes that SK hynix and other leading memory companies currently offer the "optimal risk-reward" investment opportunity in the semiconductor industry, especially following a period of adjustment.

Divergence in Long-Term Perspective: Single-Quarter ASP Surge vs. Profit Sustainability

While the two reports differ on short-term figures, their stances on the medium-to-long-term fundamentals are not entirely opposed. KIS's report also expresses a non-pessimistic view. The brokerage expects a 2Q26 operating margin of 74.6%, a record high, with continued improvement each subsequent quarter. KIS believes that as the memory industry shifts toward 3-to-5-year LTA contract structures, the core driver of valuation will transition from "single-quarter ASP increases" to "how long high profitability can be sustained," with the expansion of LTAs reducing the long-term earnings volatility characteristic of the memory sector.

SemiAnalysis more directly frames the current market adjustment as a buying opportunity, considering SK hynix to be the option with the best risk-reward profile in the semiconductor sector at this stage.