International Gold: On March 27th, the announcement that the deadline for strikes on Iranian energy facilities would be extended by 10 days until April 6th, following a request from Iran, superficially appeared as a goodwill gesture indicating progress in peace talks. However, spot gold plummeted by 2.8% to $4,377.85 on the same day, while April gold futures slumped by 3.9% to $4,376.3. Since the outbreak of the US-Israel conflict with Iran, gold has accumulated a decline of 17%, completely disrupting the traditional safe-haven logic associated with geopolitical conflicts. Amid this "fog of war," with oil prices soaring and inflation alarms sounding, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike within the year has risen to 40%, helping the US dollar index to three consecutive days of gains, significantly pressuring the gold price.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart's bearish structure remains unbroken. The moving average system continues to show a bearish alignment. Although short-term moving averages like the MA5 and MA10 show some signs of turning, medium to long-term moving averages still exert downward pressure. Gold's rebounds have consistently failed to effectively break through key resistance levels, and each rebound has been accompanied by diminishing volume, highlighting insufficient bullish momentum. This presents a pattern of "weak rebounds and strong resistance." On the 4-hour chart, after rebounding to the $4,480-$4,500 per ounce resistance zone, clear resistance was encountered. This area acts as both a previous minor structural high and a short-term moving average resistance level. Signs of a pullback after meeting resistance are evident, indicating that bearish pressure has not diminished.
Synthesizing the above, the intraday trading suggestion is to primarily focus on short positions from high levels, with long positions from low levels as a secondary strategy. For resistance, first observe the area around the 5-day moving average at $4,435-$4,440. Below this level, watch for a test of yesterday's low around $4,350. A break below this point could potentially extend the decline towards the $4,300 mark. If the bulls manage a strong breakout above resistance, then focus next on the $4,500 area, and subsequently pay close attention to the key $4,600 region. This $4,600 zone is expected to be the limit before the release of next week's non-farm payroll data, and short positions can still be considered upon reaching or approaching this area. As for support, monitor the $4,350 and $4,300 levels. A hold above the former suggests relative strength, while holding above the latter points towards a consolidation range between $4,300 and $4,600, awaiting further direction from the non-farm payroll data.