On August 19, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Central Social Work Department, National Development and Reform Commission, State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, State Administration for Market Regulation, and National Energy Administration jointly convened a solar photovoltaic industry symposium. The meeting emphasized strengthening industrial regulation and enhancing investment management for solar PV projects, promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity through market-oriented and law-based approaches. The meeting also addressed curbing low-price disorderly competition by improving price monitoring and product pricing mechanisms, while cracking down on illegal activities such as below-cost sales and false marketing.

Huatai Securities notes that this round of "anti-internal competition" measures has shown initial effectiveness. Since early July 2025, silicon material and wafer prices have surged significantly, while battery cell and module prices have also recovered. Looking ahead, solar PV "anti-internal competition" related measures are expected to advance steadily. As the core tool for supply-side reform, silicon materials may see synchronized implementation of energy consumption controls and capacity reserves, effectively constraining backward supply capacity. Against the backdrop of overseas demand recovery and domestic centralized procurement support, demand resilience remains strong, facilitating gradual price transmission throughout the supply chain, with particular focus on the silicon material segment.

Since early July, top-level signals regarding solar PV industry "anti-internal competition" have been intensively released with continuously elevated specifications. The "triple strike" of a front-page commentary article, a Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission meeting chaired by the General Secretary, and a symposium hosted by the Minister of Industry and Information Technology with solar manufacturing enterprise leaders has elevated the solar anti-internal competition initiative to the highest specification level. This has significantly heightened market expectations for strong administrative intervention regarding low-price competition and backward capacity elimination in the solar industry.

Under the continuous fermentation of "anti-internal competition" measures, supply chain prices have improved significantly since July. As of July 30, 2025, both polysilicon dense material and granular silicon prices reached 44 yuan/kg, representing increases of 22.22% and 27.54% respectively compared to early June. For wafers, 183N rose to 1.20 yuan per piece, 210RN increased to 1.35 yuan per piece, and 210N reached 1.55 yuan per piece, showing gains of 26.32%, 25.00%, and 19.23% respectively compared to early June. Battery cell prices ranged between 0.28-0.29 yuan/W, with price increases exceeding 15% compared to early June. Module price changes were relatively modest, though spot prices have recently rebounded slightly, with BC modules demonstrating significant premium capability.

This round of price increases may passively trigger inventory reduction, while the crackdown on below-cost sales drives prices back toward cost lines. The healthy development of the solar industry will still require strong supply-side restrictions and robust demand support. If overall demand growth can accelerate under certain external factors, the upward momentum of the supply chain will gain stronger sustainability.

From the supply side, the strategy involves a two-pronged approach. Addressing below-cost sales and capacity integration with coordinated production control are expected to be the main directions for solar anti-internal competition measures: ① Addressing malicious competition through below-cost sales: Current efforts to combat low-price competition have achieved preliminary results, with silicon material prices successfully adjusted upward and transactions occurring, while wafer and battery price transmission has proceeded relatively smoothly. The focus going forward will be observing module price transmission. ② Capacity integration, elimination of backward capacity, and industry self-disciplined production control: Current silicon material capacity exceeds 3 million tons, with 75% being new capacity commissioned after 2022. Future supply-side efforts will focus on gradually eliminating high-cost backward capacity, followed by self-disciplined production control by remaining capacity.

From the demand side, under less optimistic conditions, supply must be strongly controlled. Demand in the second half of 2025 is expected to remain relatively stable overall, while 2026 domestic demand faces certain uncertainties, with global demand growth expected to further decelerate. Under these circumstances, if silicon material output maintains current levels, normalizing silicon material inventory (1-2 months) within 2026 will be challenging. Only by limiting silicon material production to 80,000 tons per month under conditions of flat 2026 demand can silicon material inventory cycles be expected to return to normal within 2026. Therefore, production control intensity represents the core contradiction for future industry prosperity trends.

Based on centralized procurement data, July bidding volume increased month-over-month, with N-type benchmark prices recovering to 0.7 yuan/W and above. According to incomplete statistics, as of July 20, large-scale module centralized procurement by central and state-owned enterprises showed bidding/opening/awarding volumes of 53.5/91.5/55.6 GW respectively, down 51%/44%/51% year-over-year. July bidding/opening/awarding volumes were 4.8/0.9/1.2 GW respectively, down 3%/96%/90% year-over-year. Price-wise, July N-type conventional product award prices reached 0.7 yuan/W and above, with announced award prices for N-type conventional products ranging from 0.70-0.71 yuan/W.

CITIC Securities Investment Banking states that solar PV has become the representative industry for anti-internal competition measures. Recently, under the background of addressing below-cost sales, the supply chain price segment has achieved preliminary results, with silicon materials, wafers, and battery cells successfully transmitting price increases. Future focus will be on module price transmission. Calculations show that 40% operating rates correspond to silicon material full costs of approximately 47,000-63,000 yuan/ton. Under the restriction of "no sales below full cost," cost-side support for current prices remains strong, significantly weakening the competitiveness of high-cost enterprises, with backward capacity gradually exiting. Given potential demand growth deceleration in 2026, further improvement in supply chain prosperity requires observing industry joint production control efforts exceeding expectations.

Related Concept Stocks:

Kaisheng New Energy (01108): Company data shows it primarily engages in research, development, production and sales of new energy materials. Kaisheng New Energy announced that on June 27, 2025, the board approved its non-wholly owned subsidiary Zigong New Energy's investment and construction of a 2000t/d solar module ultra-thin packaging material project for group daily operations. The project includes construction of one 2000t/d ultra-white solar rolled glass production line, eight solar module ultra-thin packaging material production lines and other supporting facilities, with total investment of approximately RMB 1.399 billion.

GCL TECH (03800): In 2024, the company's polysilicon sales volume grew 24.7% against the trend to 282,000 tons, with granular silicon output increasing 32.2% year-over-year. Granular silicon market share improved from 12.1% at the beginning of 2024 to 25.8% by February 2025, with leading customer application ratios exceeding 40%, demonstrating strong product competitiveness. Meanwhile, granular silicon cash costs continued to breakthrough, with 2024 average costs at 33.52 yuan/kg, declining to 27.14 yuan/kg by early 2025, showing significant industry-leading advantages. Product quality continued to optimize, with high-quality product ratios improving to over 95%, effectively supporting N-type era product demand.

XINYI SOLAR (00968): By the end of June 2025, XINYI SOLAR's solar glass capacity totaled 23,200 tons/day daily melting capacity, flat compared to year-end 2024. The company suspended 2 production lines with daily capacity of 1,800 tons/day in July. The company's operating solar glass production lines are all large-scale production lines with capacity of 1,000 tons/day and above. The company holds some idle capacity that can be restarted according to market conditions. Based on current production line ignition and operation status, the company expects 2025 solar glass output of 8.14 million tons, down 10.3% compared to 2024 actual solar glass output of 9.07 million tons. To achieve better overseas sales and considering trade barrier factors, XINYI SOLAR seeks diversified overseas capacity layout. Currently, the company operates 3 solar glass production lines in Malaysia with combined capacity of 3,400 tons/day. Two solar glass production lines are under construction in Indonesia, expected to commence production in Q1 2026, better meeting overseas market demand.