Next Test for US Stock Market May Hinge on Two Leading Stocks

Deep News
Yesterday

The US stock market's current rally is powerful, having broken through multiple resistance levels. It has smoothly absorbed various pressures, from elevated crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions to earnings reports released this week by five of the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants. Next, the first-quarter earnings season enters another critical week, with over one hundred S&P 500 component companies scheduled to report. Key stocks to watch include semiconductor leader Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), retail favorites Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) and Coinbase, as well as consumer-focused names like Uber and Disney. For trend traders, the most significant event this week is AMD's earnings report, due after the market closes on Tuesday. As the computational foundation of the artificial intelligence wave, the semiconductor sector remains the core engine of this bull market. AMD's performance this year has been exceptionally strong, with a gain of 270% over the past year, more than triple the increase seen by Nvidia over the same period. Nvidia is scheduled to report its earnings on May 20. Focus on AMD and Palantir Options traders anticipate that AMD's stock price could move by approximately 7% following its earnings release. The overall sentiment appears bullish, as the volume and premium size of call options significantly exceed those of put options. However, the number of call options sold is roughly equal to the number purchased. This cautious market stance stems from AMD's experience last quarter, where its stock fell 17% after earnings before rebounding strongly by 75% in April. The options flow for intelligent software services provider Palantir Technologies Inc. shows a more decisively bullish bias. Although the stock has retreated 30% from its all-time high, it still boasts a cumulative gain of 550% over the past two years. Furthermore, the stock has closed higher following five of its last seven earnings reports. In Palantir's options trading last Friday, buy volume for call options exceeded sell volume, while for put options, sell volume was higher than buy volume. Call options accounted for 62% of the total trading volume and 72% of the total premium. Traders expect the stock to experience an 8% move post-earnings, slightly below its average movement of 8.7% over the past four quarters. Palantir is set to report its earnings after the market closes on Monday. With both AMD and Palantir reporting in the same week, there is potential for synchronized strength in the hardware and software sectors. The software sector has previously endured several months of weakness. Currently, bullish sentiment dominates the market. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 small-cap index all hit new highs simultaneously last Friday. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell to 16.4, its lowest level since February 3rd.

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