A review of the Chinese film market's box office performance in 2025 reveals that the annual total box office reached 51.832 billion yuan, with total admissions of 1.238 billion, both showing increases of over 20% compared to the previous year. The proportion of annual box office revenue from domestic films was slightly higher than last year, with blockbuster films, particularly animated features, demonstrating a "winner-takes-all" trend and increasingly focusing on IP derivative development. Looking ahead to 2026, with the support of a strong film slate, the Spring Festival holiday box office performance is promising, although it is difficult to expect a single film to surpass the performance of 2025's "Nezha 2." Against the backdrop of resilient demand during core holiday periods, coupled with the continuous release of high-quality content, it is anticipated that box office revenues for major holidays are expected to be the first to return to normalized ranges.

In 2025, the box office showed signs of warming, with particularly outstanding performances during the Spring Festival, summer, and year-end holiday periods. The "winner-takes-all" dynamic persisted as the fundamental box office recovery continued, with the two major golden holiday periods contributing the primary incremental growth. Examining the 2025 box office performance of the domestic film market, the annual total box office hit 51.832 billion yuan, and total admissions reached 1.238 billion, representing increases of more than 20% compared to the previous year for both metrics. Breaking it down by holiday period, the Spring Festival holiday box office set a new record for the period; the summer holiday box office showed steady growth compared to the previous year; the performance of several major imported blockbusters at year-end exceeded expectations; however, other holiday periods lacked major tentpole releases, resulting in relatively sluggish box office performance, with overall film resources tilting towards the Spring Festival and summer golden holidays.

The 2025 Spring Festival holiday box office reached 9.514 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.69%, setting a new historical record, primarily driven by the record-breaking performance of "Nezha 2," which subsequently led to a significant post-holiday surge in the film and cinema sector stocks, such as Enlight Media. The national box office for the 2025 summer holiday period was 11.966 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.77%. In terms of box office distribution, while the scale of the 2025 film market recovered, its structure also gradually adjusted. Among the annual top 10 new films by box office, 4 exceeded 3 billion yuan, and 8 surpassed 1 billion yuan. The proportion of annual box office revenue from domestic films was slightly higher than the previous year, and the number of new domestic films grossing over 1 billion yuan remained flat year-on-year; however, the cumulative number of domestic films in the 100-500 million yuan and 500 million to 1 billion yuan ranges saw a substantial decline compared to the previous year.

The market structure became more concentrated at the top with a weaker mid-tier, illustrating a "winner-takes-all" phenomenon where blockbuster films, especially animated features, are increasingly focusing efforts on IP derivative development. For instance, Wang Changtian, Chairman of Enlight Media, indicated that the scale of IP derivatives for "Nezha 2" is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan. Similarly, "Langlang Mountain Little Monster," produced by Shanghai Film and the summer holiday runner-up, also achieved considerable derivative income. The film and cinema sector underperformed the broader market in 2025, but presented short-term investment opportunities during strong holiday periods. The film and cinema sector faced performance pressure overall, yet short-term investment opportunities during peak holiday periods were notable. Performance driven by the Spring Festival and summer holidays outperformed the broader media sector, while it was relatively sluggish during other times.

The Shenwan Film and Cinema Index rose 16.13% for the full year, underperforming the percentage gains of the Shenwan Media Index and the CSI 300 Index, which were 27.17% and 17.66% respectively, with the media index primarily driven by the gaming sector. An analysis was conducted on the 2025 market performance of stocks including Enlight Media, Jiangsu Happiness Blue Sea Film, Shanghai Film, and Bona Film Group. Core holiday periods in 2025 led the recovery, and the performance during the weaker year-end periods also supports expectations for further recovery. Bolstered by a strong film slate, the Spring Festival holiday box office performance is promising for 2026, although expectations for a single film's box office are unlikely to surpass that of 2025's "Nezha 2."

Multiple films with high market attention and box office potential, such as "Change of Heart, Flowers Bloom," "Pegasus 3," "Shaolin Women's Football," "Traces of the Detective," "The Blade: Storm in the Desert," and "Boonie Bears: Always There," are expected to join the Spring Festival lineup. Based on the slate, the proportion of sequels is stable, IP influence is strong, and the star power of the casts is significant. It is recommended to monitor stocks with potentially higher elasticity around the 2026 Spring Festival period, including Wanda Film (002739.SZ), Bona Film Group (001330.SZ), China Film (600977.SH), Shanghai Film (601595.SH), Jiangsu Happiness Blue Sea Film (300528.SZ), Maoyan ENT (01896), and DAMAI ENT (01060). Against the backdrop of resilient demand during core holiday periods, combined with the sustained release of high-quality content next year, it is judged that box office revenues for popular holidays are expected to be the first to return to normalized ranges, essentially achieving a benchmark against pre-pandemic levels.

Assuming that key holiday period box office in 2026 recovers to 96% of the level seen in the same periods in 2019, and that non-core periods, hampered by a slow recovery in viewing habits and an ongoing cycle of supply structure optimization, recover to 76% of their 2019 counterparts (the performance of the weak November-December period in 2025 provides some support for the expectation of recovery in non-core periods), it is projected that the national box office scale for 2026 could reach 53.1 billion yuan. The industry's fundamentals are expected to continue their recovery trend, and the rebound in box office revenue will also drive a recovery in non-box-office industry revenues, including derivative income and advertising revenue. On the basis of continuously growing disposable income, when residents show a greater willingness to spend on cultural and entertainment consumption, it reflects optimism about future income expectations, which is an important signal of steady and positive economic progress for 2026.