According to Zhitong Finance APP, a research report indicates that with supply-side policies to crack down on overproduction driving output contraction, and demand-side expectations of non-power coal demand recovery during the "golden September and silver October" peak season, coal supply-demand fundamentals are expected to continue improving, with both types of coal prices having upward elasticity. In capital markets, under the backdrop of high global political and economic uncertainty and domestic economic stabilization expectations, investment behavior exhibits emotional impulses. The coal sector possesses dual attributes of cyclical and dividend characteristics. With current coal holdings at low levels and fundamentals having reached the right side of the inflection point, it is now time for strategic positioning.
Main viewpoints are as follows:
Thermal coal is a policy-regulated coal type, with prices expected to rebound and repair to long-term contract price levels. Recent recovery has surpassed the second target price, namely above the actual transaction price of local state-owned enterprise long-term contracts (around 700 yuan). Spot price recovery to annual long-term contract prices is essentially an inevitable result under the dual-track mechanism of bulk commodities. Long-term contracts, as preferential products, create price inversions with spot prices, prompting downstream users to prioritize spot purchases while delaying long-term contract purchases, thereby driving spot price recovery. Future outlook remains positive for thermal coal spot price recovery above the third target price, reaching the profit-sharing position between coal and thermal power enterprises (estimated at around 750 yuan for 2025). Regarding whether this round of coal price increases has a peak extreme value, the prediction is around 860 yuan at the power plant's break-even line, which can be viewed as the fourth target price.
Recent price adjustments are due to weakened electricity consumption and coal burning during the summer-autumn transition. Subsequently, non-power coal during the "golden September and silver October" period is expected to take over and drive prices upward again, particularly chemical coal consumption.
Coking coal is a market-oriented coal type, with prices determined more by supply-demand fundamentals. Target prices can be referenced through the "ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices." The spot ratio of Jingtang Port primary coking coal to Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal is approximately 2.4 times, corresponding to coking coal target prices of 1,608 yuan, 1,680 yuan, 1,800 yuan, and 2,064 yuan for the first, second, third, and fourth targets respectively. Coking coal futures will repair the discount to Jingtang Port primary coking coal spot prices.
Coal stock dual logic one: Cyclical elasticity. Current thermal coal and coking coal prices remain at historical lows, providing room for rebound. With supply-side policies to crack down on overproduction driving output contraction and demand-side expectations of non-power coal demand recovery during the peak season, coal supply-demand fundamentals are expected to continue improving, with both coal types having upward price elasticity. Thermal coal has logical support from long-term contract mechanism repair and "profit-sharing between coal and thermal power enterprises," while coking coal, due to higher market orientation, is more sensitive to supply-demand changes and may exhibit greater price elasticity.
Coal stock dual logic two: Stable dividends. From interim report data, even under the backdrop of overall profit pressure in 2025, most coal enterprises maintained relatively high dividend yields. Despite significant year-on-year decline in industry profits, this has not shaken coal enterprises' dividend determination. Six listed coal companies announced interim dividend plans (China Shenhua/Shanxi Coking Coal/Shaanxi Coal/Shanghai Energy/YANKUANG ENERGY/China Coal Energy), with total dividend scale of 24.13 billion yuan, basically continuing the dividend trend of seven companies in mid-2024. Enterprise dividend willingness and frequency achieved leap-forward improvement. As the sector is dominated by state-owned assets, leading company China Shenhua's first-half dividend ratio reached as high as 79%, demonstrating significant effect.
In capital markets, under the backdrop of high global political and economic uncertainty and domestic economic stabilization expectations, investment behavior exhibits emotional impulses. The coal sector possesses dual attributes of cyclical and dividend characteristics. With current coal holdings at low levels and fundamentals having reached the right side of the inflection point, it is now time for strategic positioning.
Four main themes for selected coal stocks that will benefit:
Theme one, cyclical logic: Thermal coal: Jinkong Coal (601001.SH), YANKUANG ENERGY (600188.SH, 01171); Metallurgical coal: Pingmei Coal (601666.SH), Huaibei Mining (600985.SH), Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699.SH).
Theme two, dividend logic: China Shenhua (601088.SH, 01088), China Coal Energy (601898.SH, 01898) (dividend potential), Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH).
Theme three, diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhuo Shares (000933.SZ), CPI Energy (002128.SZ).
Theme four, growth logic: Xinji Energy (601918.SH), Guanghui Energy (600256.SH).
Risk warnings: Economic growth slowdown risk, supply-demand mismatch risk, accelerated renewable energy substitution risk.