On Tuesday, March 17, the U.S. national debt exceeded $39 trillion for the first time, coming less than five months after it initially hit $38 trillion in late October. Budget watchdogs and economists now widely agree that this pace of debt accumulation is unsustainable.
The milestone was confirmed by a daily statement from the U.S. Treasury on Wednesday, occurring at a politically sensitive time—roughly two weeks before the ten-year anniversary of Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign promise to eliminate the national debt within eight years. However, since the start of Trump’s first term, the total debt has doubled, rising from $19.9 trillion in January 2017.
In March 2017, Trump stated, “We have a moral duty to the taxpayer to streamline government and increase accountability.” He issued an executive order directing then-White House Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney to deliver a comprehensive plan to reorganize the executive branch, fulfilling his pledge to implement common-sense reforms, cut waste, and make government work better for all Americans. “We’re going to do more with less,” Trump said at the time.
Michael Peterson, CEO of the Peterson Foundation, said in a statement, “As U.S. debt soars past $39 trillion, we must recognize the alarming speed of this growth and the heavy economic burden we are placing on the next generation. Borrowing trillions this quickly, with no plan in place, is clearly unsustainable.”
According to projections from the Peterson Foundation, if the current growth rate continues, U.S. debt will reach $40 trillion before this fall’s midterm elections—adding another trillion dollars in nearly the same short timeframe. Michael Peterson called the figure “staggering.” The pace of debt accumulation has accelerated sharply; the Peterson Foundation estimates that the most recent trillion-dollar increase took less than five months, a rate of fiscal expansion rarely seen in modern history outside of wartime or severe financial crises.
This milestone comes as the Congressional Budget Office, in its February outlook report, projected that under current law, the federal deficit will reach $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026 and surge to $3.1 trillion by 2036. Over the same period, the debt held by the public as a share of GDP is expected to climb from the current 101% to 120% by 2036, surpassing the post-World War II record of 106%. The long-term outlook is even more bleak: according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the CBO’s long-term baseline forecast shows debt rising to 175% of GDP over the next 30 years.
**A $1 Trillion Interest Burden**
Perhaps the most concerning aspect of the current debt situation is the enormous cost of servicing it. In fiscal year 2026, net interest payments on U.S. debt are projected to exceed $1 trillion—nearly triple the $345 billion in interest the government paid early in the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. In just the first three months of this fiscal year, net interest payments reached $270 billion, already exceeding U.S. defense spending over the same period.
Peterson’s statement highlighted the lasting nature of the interest burden: over the next 30 years, the government is projected to spend close to $100 trillion on interest alone, an amount that exceeds any major federal program. The Peterson Foundation estimates that over the next decade, the average American will bear at least $47,000 in interest costs per person.
“Interest is the fastest-growing ‘program’ in the federal budget,” Peterson said.
**What the Numbers Really Mean**
Not all economists are equally alarmed by the sheer size of the $39 trillion debt—though nearly all agree the trend is dangerous. Kent Smetters, director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model and one of the nation’s leading fiscal economists, argues that the total debt figure carries less economic significance than the debt held by the public, which currently stands at $31.3 trillion. He explained that the $39 trillion total includes intragovernmental debt, essentially “money the government owes itself,” such as obligations to the Social Security Trust Fund. Aside from serving as a political signal, it carries no independent economic meaning. Still, he added, “The fact that debt held by the public is now above $31 trillion is not a good thing.”
Smetters agrees with Peterson, stating, “The real issue is that we are on an unsustainable debt path.” His model shows that when accounting for both explicit public debt and implicit liabilities hidden in Social Security, Medicare, and other long-term commitments, the true fiscal gap approaches $100 trillion.
The Wharton Budget Model previously projected that without major policy changes, the U.S. would be unable to roll over its accumulated debt in about 20 years—a scenario that would force the country to either explicitly default on interest payments or implicitly default through inflation.
This debt milestone arrives amid high public anxiety about the federal government’s fiscal health. A Peterson Foundation survey found that 90% of Americans believe rising debt is increasing the cost of living and driving up borrowing costs.
The U.S. fiscal situation has deteriorated to what the Peterson Foundation calls “the worst among peer countries.” With Trump’s budget proposal expected the week of March 30, a political battle over spending and revenue is set to begin—just as the foundation predicts total U.S. debt will near $40 trillion.