Global markets experienced a Black Monday, with European indices generally down over 2%, while the Asia-Pacific region saw more severe declines. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 3.48%, South Korea's KOSPI plummeted 6.49%, and domestic markets also struggled. A-shares were broadly down over 3.5%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped approximately 3.54%. The primary trigger was Iran's launch of two intermediate-range ballistic missiles over the weekend targeting the Diego Garcia base. Although intercepted, the missiles' 3,800-kilometer range surprised observers, indicating that even the U.S.'s sole strategic hub in the Indian Ocean is vulnerable, with Europe also within range. The action was primarily a deterrent warning. Subsequently, U.S. President Trump escalated tensions, stating that if Tehran does not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, he would "destroy" Iran's power plants, targeting the largest one first. Iran responded firmly, warning that if its fuel and energy infrastructure is attacked, all U.S. and allied energy infrastructure, IT systems, and desalination facilities in the region would become targets. Capital markets felt unprecedented pressure. Beyond the potential U.S. strike on power plants, a more critical issue emerged: Israeli media reported that senior U.S. officials have indicated to counterparts in Israel and other nations that the U.S. may have no choice but to launch a ground military operation to seize Iran's Kharg Island. Iran countered that if the island is attacked, it will deploy various types of mines across all shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf. Kharg Island is Iran's largest crude oil export terminal, accounting for 90% of its exports. The world watches to see if the U.S. will commit ground forces. If a ground war officially begins, the U.S. would find it difficult to disengage. Capital markets would face continued turmoil, with safe-haven flows already boosting the U.S. dollar, while gold was sold off. Today's market reaction primarily reflected the extreme scenario of the U.S. bombing power plants. If plants are destroyed, many related companies could face forced shutdowns. For instance, methanol producer China Risun Group (01907) rose 6%. Oil and gas-related stocks like Shandong Molong (00568) gained over 4%, while CNOOC (00883) continued its upward trend, remaining the most resilient. Rising oil prices were mirrored domestically. On March 23, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments took effect, expected to mark the fifth consecutive increase and set a new annual high. Longzhong Information estimated an increase of around 2,000 yuan per ton, meaning filling a 50-liter tank would cost about 75 yuan more. Higher oil prices boost demand for electric vehicles, such as opportunities in two-wheeler electrification across Asia. Yadea (01585) rose nearly 10%. Recent discussions highlighted Southeast Asian demand for Chinese new energy vehicles. Reports indicate Chinese automakers achieved annual global sales of approximately 27 million units, while Japanese automakers retreated to around 25 million units. Among them, Geely Auto (00175) has been particularly strong, rising over 2% today. Leapmotor (09863) also gained nearly 3% after launching its European Innovation Center in Munich, Germany—its first overseas innovation hub—to tap into the region's automotive talent and respond quickly to local technical standards and user needs. Alternative energy remained a key focus. Nuclear power gained attention as Liaoning's Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on nuclear power units participating in electricity market transactions by 2026, establishing a sustainable pricing mechanism to support market entry. With supportive policies clear in Guangxi and Liaoning, nuclear power pricing policies are entering implementation. CGN Power (01816) rose over 2%. Biomass power also performed well. China Everbright Environment (00257) secured two waste-to-energy projects in Uzbekistan, marking a key entry into Central Asia, and plans to set up offices in Vietnam, Indonesia, and Central Asia to shift from project-driven to region-focused expansion. In B2B operations, the company aims to upgrade traditional waste and biomass power to higher-value products like heating and steam, while expanding into green sectors such as zero-carbon parks, wind, solar, and agricultural pollution control. The stock gained nearly 1%. In robotics, the Shanghai Stock Exchange accepted Unitree Robotics' IPO application for the STAR Market on March 20, seeking to raise 4.202 billion yuan. The rapid valuation surge—more than doubling in under a year—is backed by strong investors like Sequoia Capital, with Meituan (03690) as the largest external shareholder after the founder and an employee incentive platform, holding 9.65%. Whether Meituan can leverage drone delivery to boost its prospects warrants attention. Other concept stocks like CALB (03931) rose over 5% after completing a solid-state battery production line, with plans for batch delivery of thousands of units by Q4 2026. On March 23, Nations Technologies (02701) listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on MCU products. Its self-developed multi-core heterogeneous MCUs, such as the N32H7 series, are domestic firsts, providing stable, real-time neural network inference and precise servo motor control for humanoid robots. The stock surged before paring gains, closing over 4% above its IPO price of 10.8. Media reports noted Jay Chou will release a 25th-anniversary album on March 24, with his 2026 world tour starting in Hangzhou in April, featuring new songs. Star Plus Legend (06683), deeply tied to Jay Chou and managing IP like "Mr. J," continued to ride the hype, rising over 3%. On March 22, PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized at the 2026 China Development Forum that RMB internationalization has made positive progress, with ongoing improvements to cross-border usage systems and financial infrastructure. Jingwei Tian Di (02477) announced its one-stop payment platform "Fopay," developed on stablecoin crypto payment concepts, now offering stablecoin custody and prepaid card payment functions via licensed partners, rising over 4%. Bright Smart Securities (01428) surged over 12%. Attention is on upcoming Hong Kong stablecoin licensing developments. Global capital markets face a critical juncture—will Trump opt for a "TACO" or escalate further? The situation remains tense.

The global ammonia supply crisis is worsening on multiple fronts. With Hormuz Strait trade disruptions and Indian fertilizer plant shutdowns, Australia's largest ammonia producer, Yara, faced a power outage damaging equipment at its Pilbara plant, forcing a two-month halt. This exacerbates global fertilizer supply pressures. A Yara spokesperson confirmed no injuries, with repairs estimated at two months. The plant, with an annual capacity of 850,000 tons of ammonia, directly impacts Australia's agriculture and mining sectors and international exports. Australia already imports 60% of its urea, compounding challenges as Middle Eastern and Indonesian plants reduce output. Fertilizer prices are set to climb, benefiting stocks like China XLX Fertiliser (01866), CNOOC Chemical (03983), China Risun Group (01907), and Sinofert (00297).

Ganfeng Lithium (01772) sees a recovery in the lithium battery sector, with expanding capacity. Its 2025 earnings preview shows net profit of 1.1–1.65 billion yuan (versus a 2.074-billion-yuan loss in 2024), up 153%–179% year-on-year. Q4 was particularly strong, with net profit of 1.07–1.62 billion yuan and core profit of 340–640 million yuan, turning profitable both annually and quarterly. While full-year core results remained negative, indicating ongoing challenges, solid-state battery demand and supply-side adjustments offer potential. As a global lithium leader, Ganfeng has clearly reversed its 2025 performance. With over 45 million tons LCE resources, it ranks among the world's top. Key projects include Argentina's Cauchari-Olaroz salt lake (51% stake, 24.58 million tons LCE, the world's second-largest), producing 4 million tons/year lithium carbonate initially; output was 25,400 tons in 2024, targeting 30,000–35,000 tons in 2025. The Mariana salt lake (100% owned, 8.12 million tons LCE) began production in February 2025, with stable supply from Q3. Mali's Goulamina spodumene mine (fully owned, 7.14 million tons LCE, 1.37% lithium oxide grade) aims for 506,000 tons/year lithium concentrate. Lithium salt capacity exceeds 200,000 tons for carbonate/hydroxide, targeting over 250,000 tons by 2026. It is the world's largest metal lithium producer, with clients like CATL, BYD, LG, and Tesla. Solid-state batteries are in small-scale production, scaling up from 2026, with breakthroughs in composite solid electrolyte membranes; mass production of 420Wh/kg cells and 500Wh/kg samples passing safety tests. It has delivered vehicle solid-state batteries to Seres. Metal lithium purity exceeds 99.9%, with ultra-thin foil (<0.1mm) for high-end batteries and aerospace, priced 8–10 times carbonate. It uniquely produces 99.9% purity battery-grade lithium sulfide at 30% lower cost. With lithium carbonate prices bottoming and downstream demand growing, the sector's outlook is improving.