Key Trump Appointee Shifts Stance on Interest Rate Cuts

Deep News
Yesterday

Stephen Miran, a Federal Reserve governor and close ally of former President Trump, has revised his earlier position that the central bank should implement significant interest rate cuts this year. In a recent interview, he indicated that new data reveals the U.S. economy is performing more strongly than he had previously anticipated.

Miran noted that recent figures show employment conditions are more robust than he had expected, while goods inflation appears more persistent. As a result, he stated that, compared to two months ago, he no longer believes the Fed should proceed with the substantial rate cuts originally planned for this year.

He explained, "The labor market has performed slightly better than I anticipated over recent months. There are also signs of further strength in goods inflation. Taken together, these factors lead me to reconsider the stance I took in December."

In the Fed’s December quarterly “dot plot” projections, Miran had forecast that interest rates would fall below 2.25% by year-end. Now, he prefers returning to the more moderate outlook he held in September, which projected rates declining below 2.75% by the end of 2026.

Miran’s updated position implies a cumulative reduction of one percentage point from the current 3.5% to 3.75% range this year. Despite this shift, he remains one of the most dovish officials at the Fed, in contrast to the median forecast of most Fed policymakers, who anticipate only a 25-basis-point cut this year.

The interview has drawn attention because it signals a widening gap between Miran’s views and the economic policy stance of the White House. Miran previously served as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers in the Trump administration. He had earlier cautioned that failing to cut rates aggressively could harm the U.S. economy and downplayed concerns about goods inflation, suggesting that tariff-driven price increases were unlikely to become a long-term trend.

In September of last year, Trump appointed Miran to the Federal Reserve Board, a move that attracted scrutiny because Miran was on leave from the Council of Economic Advisers rather than having formally resigned. This unusual arrangement raised concerns among some observers that Miran’s policy decisions might be influenced by Trump’s strong preference for low interest rates.

Earlier this month, Miran resigned from his White House role, fulfilling a pledge he made to Senate Democrats that he would leave the Trump administration if his term at the Fed extended beyond February. He had been appointed to fill the remainder of a term left vacant by another governor’s resignation. Although that term has now ended, he may continue to serve temporarily until the Senate confirms a successor.

Trump is expected to use this vacancy to appoint Kevin Warsh to the Fed Board, replacing Miran and potentially succeeding current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Another vacancy may arise later this year if Powell follows precedent and resigns from the Board when his term as chair ends in May.

Miran voted in favor of lower interest rates in all four policy meetings in which he participated. In the recent interview, he did not specify how he would vote at the next meeting in March. Markets widely expect the Fed to maintain rates unchanged, continuing the pause in hikes decided last month.

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