A recent metals industry research report highlights that the metals market is currently in a tight supply-demand balance. While supply-demand balance sheets provide reference value, macroeconomic factors play a more crucial role in determining metal price trends. Monetary policies, macroeconomic expectations, geopolitical tensions, and supply disruptions are identified as key drivers of sector performance. The report provides a comprehensive analysis of precious metals, base metals, energy metals, and strategic metals, clarifying investment logic and relevant targets for each segment.
Precious metals demonstrate steady price appreciation due to geopolitical disturbances and central bank gold purchases. The U.S.-Iran conflict has heightened geopolitical uncertainty, further boosting expectations for precious metal price increases. Notably, central bank gold accumulation continues, with China's gold reserves reaching 74.19 million ounces by the end of January, marking 15 consecutive months of expansion. Despite rising U.S. inflation data, the long-term positive outlook for precious metals remains unchanged as it hasn't impacted the rate cut trajectory.
Specific data shows SHFE gold gained 3.29% last week to 1,147.90 yuan/gram, while COMEX gold rose 4.24% to 5,296.40 USD/ounce. London spot gold increased 3.27% to 5,278.26 USD/ounce. Inventory data indicates SHFE gold inventory stood at 105 tons, slightly down by 0.01 tons weekly, while COMEX gold inventory decreased by 16.98 tons to 945 tons. COMEX gold non-commercial net long positions reduced by 700 contracts, while SPDR gold holdings increased by 726,000 ounces.
Silver prices followed the upward trend with SHFE silver surging 16.34% to 23,019 yuan/kg and COMEX silver rising 14.62% to 94.39 USD/ounce. London spot silver gained 10.85% to 93.74 USD/ounce. As China's economy stabilizes and recovers, improved performance in consumer electronics and other sectors is expected to further drive industrial silver demand.
Base metals show clear supply-demand divergence with copper demonstrating strength while aluminum faces pressure. The copper sector benefits from supply rigidity and strategic stockpiling driving price increases. Macroeconomic factors include potential global tariffs under consideration by the Trump administration and protection for critical minerals. Supply faces multiple mining disruptions maintaining rigidity, while demand from AI investments, grid construction, and robotics continues to grow. Copper's strategic resource status provides additional price support.
Data indicates SHFE copper increased 3.53% to 103,920 yuan/ton last week, while LME copper rose 2.93% to 13,343.5 USD/ton. Post-holiday supply pressure materialized with imported copper clearing customs and delivery warrants converting to spot supply, creating ample market liquidity. The operating rate for refined copper rods reached 18.38%, up 6.42 percentage points weekly. Global visible inventories totaled 1.4332 million tons, increasing by 216,800 tons from the previous week.
The aluminum sector presents a "favorable macro outlook but inventory pressure" scenario. Global macro conditions show weak balance with high volatility, while tariff policy uncertainties persist. Seasonal pressures remain prominent with post-holiday inventory accumulation trends difficult to reverse despite steady recovery in downstream processing operations. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain high volatility awaiting post-holiday demand recovery.
SHFE aluminum gained 2.76% to 23,835 yuan/ton last week, while LME aluminum increased 1.21% to 3,140.0 USD/ton. New electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia continue production ramp-up, increasing daily output. Processing operating rates declined to 57.0%, with social aluminum ingot inventories at 1.157 million tons (up 49,000 tons weekly), aluminum billet inventories at 398,000 tons (up 18,000 tons), and plant inventories at 233,000 tons (up 42,000 tons). Aluminum profit per ton reached approximately 7,151.65 yuan.
For tin, supply disruptions show marginal reduction. While conflicts in northern Myanmar's Guigai region raised trade obstruction concerns, core mining areas under independent control face limited supply risks. Progress in mine drainage issues may accelerate production resumption. Post-holiday downstream resumption pace and inventory demand require monitoring, with tin prices likely to fluctuate in the short term.
Energy metals maintain strong demand with declining inventories supporting continued sector prosperity. Lithium carbonate continues inventory reduction post-holiday, marking five consecutive weeks of destocking despite rising production. Expected reduction in battery export tax rebates may front-load battery demand. Zimbabwe's export policies require close monitoring for potential supply disruptions.
Cobalt faces tight upstream supply maintaining high quotations, while downstream purchasing remains cautious. Cobalt companies increasingly extend downstream into new energy sectors, building integrated cost advantages from cobalt-nickel-precursor-cathode materials to enhance competitive barriers.
Rare earth and strategic metals demonstrate significant value with positive price trends. Rare earth metals achieved a strong start post-Spring Festival with both light and heavy rare earth prices rising. Data shows praseodymium-neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide prices reached 890,000, 1.62 million, and 6.525 million yuan/ton respectively on February 27, 2026, increasing by 40,000, 145,000, and 100,000 yuan/ton weekly. Praseodymium-neodymium oxide production reached 8,514 tons in February 2026, down 1.11% monthly but up 7.19% yearly. The report maintains positive outlook on rare earths as critical strategic resources.
Tungsten and uranium demonstrate prominent investment value among strategic metals. Tungsten benefits from tightened domestic quotas and northern Myanmar situation reducing supply rigidity, combined with overseas price increases and U.S. government AI pricing models injecting strong strategic premiums. Current industry chain inventory replenishment and upstream material holding back sales trigger downstream price adjustments. Supply constraints may persist until new quota allocations, maintaining high tungsten prices as strategic attributes reshape long-term pricing mechanisms.
Uranium reached decade-high long-term contract prices in January driven by supply rigidity and nuclear power development. The uranium supply-demand gap is expected to persist long-term, supporting continued price increases.
The report highlights three key risks: weaker-than-expected downstream demand potentially dragging metal prices; excessive supply releases causing oversupply; and slower-than-expected Federal Reserve rate cuts impacting metal prices through financial attributes, market liquidity, investor risk appetite, and growth expectations.