During Asian trading hours on Tuesday, a continued cooling of risk appetite in financial markets saw the price of Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market value, tumble over 5% to fall below $63,000. This decline was primarily driven by investors grappling with escalating global trade tensions due to a new wave of tariffs championed by former President Donald Trump, alongside broader geopolitical risks. The sharp drop in Bitcoin's price also highlights a tendency for capital to flow towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver during periods of market uncertainty, rather than to so-called "digital gold" assets like Bitcoin. Pricing for risk assets within the entire cryptocurrency market relies more on bullish conviction and narrative logic within the crypto community than on traditional cash-flow fundamentals. Therefore, when the optimistic narrative for Bitcoin as digital gold is fundamentally challenged, it signifies a continuous erosion of marginal buying power for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Under heavy selling pressure from investors collectively shifting towards a "risk-off" strategy, this top cryptocurrency plummeted to $62,964.64 on Tuesday.

One veteran Wall Street analyst stated that following the recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling against reciprocal tariffs and the swift introduction of alternative tariff frameworks by Trump, compounded by geopolitical turmoil, market risk appetite has deteriorated sharply. This decline reflects "tactical de-risking," where escalating tariff tensions and broader geopolitical risks are putting sustained pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Some analysts suggest Bitcoin's latest downward trajectory resembles a "macro risk appetite reset" rather than a crypto-specific negative. Observing Bitcoin's weak performance since February, the cryptocurrency has shown high sensitivity to "tightening financial conditions" during windows of密集 risk events. The ambiguity and uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's tariff policies at legal and political levels have elevated global risk premiums, triggering a typical risk-off environment. This involves selling risk assets like cryptocurrencies and high-valuation tech stocks, benefiting traditional safe havens like gold and pressuring risk assets, positioning Bitcoin more as a high-beta risk asset than a safe haven. Narratives such as "tariff uncertainty suppresses risk appetite, driving capital to gold" are prevalent in mainstream media and research commentary.

Christopher Hamilton, Head of Client Investment Solutions for Asia Pacific ex-Japan at Invesco, commented, "This significant drop in Bitcoin does not appear to be an asset-specific sell-off冲击 within the crypto space, but rather a typical reset of risk sentiment or macro risk appetite." Senior analyst Hamilton added that the sell-off is more likely reflecting a trend of "tactical de-risking of assets" rather than a structural exit of investor positions. Last week, former President Donald Trump stated he would decide within "about the next 10 days" whether to launch a military strike against Iran, citing Iran's potential resistance to a new nuclear agreement. This further intensified geopolitical tensions led by the U.S. and Iran, with continued U.S. military asset deployment in the Middle East. Combined with the Supreme Court's invalidation of reciprocal tariffs and the volatility of Trump's tariff policies reigniting market repricing, the trend of a "macro risk appetite reset" has become increasingly clear.

Since breaking through $125,000 to hit an all-time high last October, Bitcoin has experienced a sharp sell-off, a trend that has continued into the new year. Year-to-date, the cryptocurrency has fallen significantly by 27% and is down roughly 50% from its October peak. Billy Leung, Investment Strategist at Global X Australia, said, "More critically, Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to global liquidity conditions. If the market interprets the Trump administration's new trade policies as tightening financial conditions, crypto assets will be among the first to feel the negative impact of selling." The key narratives that once supported the Bitcoin bull market are being substantially weakened almost simultaneously. Bitcoin seems to be undergoing an "narrative compression" crisis regarding its identity and bull market faith. The price retracement is not the only issue; more importantly, several core narratives long relied upon as value pillars—safe haven, payment system, speculation—are being undermined concurrently. This is particularly ironic as it occurs at a stage where Bitcoin "seemed to have won," with friendlier regulation, deeper institutional participation, and more sophisticated Wall Street tools like spot ETFs. Yet, these developments have not prevented a significant market cap contraction, instead prompting the market to re-examine what can attract new capital and long-term allocation if price appreciation is no longer the default outcome.

Based on current market repricing trends, Bitcoin, dubbed "digital gold," is clearly losing to the "traditional king of safe havens," gold, in a macro risk appetite stress test. When safe-haven demand rises, capital prefers flowing into gold-related instruments over the highly volatile Bitcoin, as evidenced by ongoing outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. For Bitcoin, the once-proud "future of payments" narrative is being directly分流 by stablecoins and tokenized settlement, which offer greater explicability and regulatory progress in payment scenarios. For instance, some payment platforms integrating stablecoins and Lightning Network signal a migration of the primary payments battlefield. Furthermore, "speculative attention" has significantly溢出 to prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, which offer faster settlement and are more event-driven, attracting some high-frequency speculative capital and media focus, creating alternative吸引力 to the crypto speculation ecosystem. Consequently, this "narrative drift risk" undoubtedly makes a strong short-term rebound for Bitcoin more difficult to achieve.

If the market is simultaneously conducting a thorough reassessment of the long-standing logics supporting the Bitcoin bull run—namely, its effectiveness as a safe-haven/inflation-hedge asset; its necessity as a payment medium (where stablecoins are closer to "payment"); and its monopoly on attention as a speculative vehicle (with some capital shifting to prediction markets)—then even without a "fatal negative," a scenario could emerge where the asset and network persist, but the narratives attracting incremental capital fundamentally weaken. Rebounds would then rely more on macro liquidity easing or a recovery in risk appetite rather than an acceleration driven by intrinsic narratives. Reversing Bitcoin's current weak trajectory typically requires seeing at least one variable shift: clearer paths on tariff policies, a de-escalation of geopolitical risks, marginal easing of dollar liquidity/a resurgence of rate cut expectations, or prices stabilizing near key support levels after a "volatility decline + capital return" following deleveraging. This is also why the market is particularly concerned about a break below the critical $60,000 level, which could potentially trigger a new wave of liquidations.

Standard Chartered, often called a "Bitbull bull market flag-bearer," recently warned of further weakness for Bitcoin and significantly lowered its year-end 2026 price target. Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, wrote in a research report, "We anticipate further price capitulation in the coming months." He specifically pointed to continued net outflows from Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and a weakening U.S. macroeconomic backdrop and market risk appetite. Standard Chartered, known for its early and steadfast bullish stance on Bitcoin, accurately predicted the unprecedented bull run in late 2023 and has frequently voiced support. However, its latest report indicates a shift towards a more cautious investment stance. The bank sharply revised its Bitcoin price forecast for the end of 2026 down to $100,000 from $150,000—a target that was as high as $300,000 just months ago. The institution also warned that the cryptocurrency could potentially fall to $50,000 before stabilizing彻底.