Abstract

NCR Atleos Corporation will release its quarterly results on February 26, 2026, Post Market, with expectations pointing to moderate revenue growth, expanding adjusted EPS, and a close watch on margins and segment mix.

Market Forecast

For the upcoming quarter, modeled expectations indicate total revenue of $1.15 billion, representing 3.99% year-over-year growth, with adjusted EPS projected at $1.36, up 33.10% year-over-year, and EBIT anticipated at $201.34 million, up 13.64% year-over-year; forecast gross margin and net margin were not disclosed. The main business is expected to maintain stable performance with steady upgrade cycles and managed services momentum supporting recurring revenue and underpinning the overall growth trajectory. Within the portfolio, Payments and Network appears positioned to contribute a meaningful share of incremental growth, building from last quarter’s $328.00 million revenue base amid ongoing connectivity expansion; segment-specific year-over-year metrics were not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

NCR Atleos Corporation reported revenue of $1.12 billion, a gross profit margin of 24.17%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $26.00 million, a net profit margin of 2.32%, and adjusted EPS of $1.09, which rose 22.47% year-over-year. A notable highlight was operational execution exceeding modeled expectations: revenue surpassed the estimate by $6.19 million, EBIT came in $3.45 million above estimates, and adjusted EPS beat by $0.02. Main business momentum reflected a solid base in Self-Service Banking at $744.00 million and Payments and Network at $328.00 million, alongside Telecom and Technology at $40.00 million and Other at $9.00 million, with total revenue growth of 3.99% year-over-year.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Self-Service Banking

The Self-Service Banking franchise, which delivered $744.00 million last quarter, remains central to near-term performance as installed base refresh cycles and service-level expansions continue to support consistent revenue. Hardware refreshes typically cluster into multi-quarter waves tied to software compatibility requirements and regulatory needs at financial institutions, reinforcing a pattern of steady demand even when macro signals are mixed. Managed services and software attach rates are critical; incremental adoption of monitoring, security, and remote management bundles can lift revenue density per site and stabilize margins. With a last-quarter gross profit margin of 24.17% at the group level, the room for mix-driven improvement exists if service-heavy contributions rise within Self-Service Banking, which would reduce sensitivity to hardware pricing and freight costs. The concentration of large financial clients implies that timing of multiyear contracts can influence quarterly cadence, so even modest shifts in implementation schedules may swing revenue recognition between quarters. That said, the quarter’s modeled revenue growth of 3.99% at the group level provides a reasonable backdrop for Self-Service Banking to anchor results, particularly if implementation pipelines convert as planned.

Payments and Network

Payments and Network generated $328.00 million last quarter and has emerged as the segment with the most visible potential for incremental growth this quarter, supported by ongoing network deployments and broader adoption of processing and connectivity solutions. Revenue elasticity in this area often correlates with transaction volumes, pricing updates, and the pace of onboarding new endpoints to the network; concurrently, client activity tends to scale as new modules are activated across merchant and bank footprints. This quarter’s modeled group-level growth of 3.99% aligns with a scenario where Payments and Network contributes a disproportionate share of upside if new connections and service expansions convert efficiently in the period. Margins in network-oriented services are typically driven by throughput efficiencies and software utilization rather than hardware cost absorption, which can be supportive of consolidated profitability if mix shifts toward this segment. As a result, successful execution in Payments and Network—especially accelerating client activation, reducing churn in contracted volumes, and ensuring uptime and resiliency—has the potential to lift EBIT beyond the modeled $201.34 million while helping offset any pressure from hardware or logistics in other parts of the portfolio.

Telecom and Technology, and Other

While smaller in scale, Telecom and Technology at $40.00 million and Other at $9.00 million play a complementary role and can serve as vehicles for specialized offerings or bespoke integration work that enhances broader solution stickiness. These areas may not materially shift headline growth but can influence customer satisfaction and contract longevity, which indirectly supports pricing discipline and cross-sell opportunities in core segments. Given their size, volatility from one-off projects or timing of deliveries can produce noticeable fluctuations in reported results without altering the strategic arc. Efficient resource allocation here—specifically ensuring tight project management and cost control—can stabilize contribution margins and prevent leakage that would otherwise dilute the consolidated net margin, which stood at 2.32% last quarter. Management’s ability to align these offerings with the broader platform narrative—particularly in security, connectivity, and compliance—could improve their leverage over time, even if quarterly swings remain part of the operating rhythm.

Margin Trajectory and Earnings Quality

The margin path is a focal point this quarter after the prior period’s consolidated gross margin of 24.17% and net margin of 2.32%, alongside a 31.58% quarter-on-quarter decline in GAAP net profit. Expanding adjusted EPS to the modeled $1.36 (+33.10% year-over-year) will likely require sustained cost discipline and successful mix shifts toward higher-margin service and software components, particularly within Self-Service Banking and Payments and Network. EBIT is projected at $201.34 million (+13.64% year-over-year), suggesting operating leverage from higher utilization and service intensity; the degree to which this lever translates to net income depends on interest expense, tax rate, and any one-off items. Earnings quality will be closely scrutinized for signs of recurring revenue expansion, contract durability, and working capital balance, including inventory and receivables management consistent with the quarter’s delivery cadence. Should revenue land near $1.15 billion (+3.99% year-over-year) while maintaining stable service attachments, the setup supports incremental margin resilience even without explicit gross margin guidance. However, given the recent quarter-on-quarter net profit decline, investors may evaluate whether improvements are sustainable or driven by transitory cost savings or timing effects.

Revenue Mix and Execution Risks

Revenue mix between hardware, software, and services remains the core execution lever. Hardware-heavy quarters can pressure margins and cash conversion if freight or component costs rise, while service-heavy quarters typically offer stronger margin carry-through and more reliable receivables cycles. The last quarter’s distribution—$744.00 million in Self-Service Banking and $328.00 million in Payments and Network—suggests a sizable installed base that thrives on service and upgrade intensity; the quarter’s outcome will hinge on whether planned client activations and managed-service expansions occur on schedule. Slippage in implementation timelines, even by weeks, can shift both revenue and EBIT recognition, making intra-quarter visibility an important determinant of meeting or exceeding the modeled $201.34 million in EBIT. The absence of explicit gross margin guidance elevates importance on segment-level commentary; any confirmation of service mix expansion would likely be interpreted as supportive to consolidated margin performance. Conversely, if deliveries skew toward lower-margin hardware or if timing effects defer revenue into the next quarter, headline growth of 3.99% year-over-year could still be achieved while falling short on earnings leverage.

Adjusted EPS and Cash Generation

Adjusted EPS of $1.09 last quarter rose 22.47% year-over-year, and the current quarter’s modeled $1.36 (+33.10%) implies both operating efficiency and favorable mix dynamics. The durability of adjusted EPS depends on limiting one-off charges and aligning cost optimization with growth investments in critical segments, notably Payments and Network. Cash generation will be evaluated in tandem with EPS to assess whether reported improvements translate into sustainable liquidity and deleveraging capacity; tighter control of working capital—especially within the service and hardware supply chain—will be instrumental in preserving cash margins. Given the prior quarter’s revenue beat of $6.19 million and EBIT beat of $3.45 million, stakeholders will watch for consistent execution rather than isolated outperformance. If adjusted EPS expands in line with expectations while maintaining or improving cash conversion, the market may view the quarter as an affirmation of operating resilience.

Operational Milestones and Client Delivery

Practical, near-term milestones include the pace of client onboarding in Payments and Network, the roll-out of new or upgraded terminals in Self-Service Banking, and reported service attach rates across major customers. A consolidated narrative linking these milestones to margin stability would bolster confidence in the $201.34 million EBIT projection and the $1.36 adjusted EPS target. Deployment consistency and uptime metrics in network operations typically correlate with revenue density and renewal strength, which drive higher-quality earnings. Any updates on contract renewals or multi-year expansions would serve as constructive signals that underpin both short-term performance and medium-term backlog visibility. Execution that reduces variance from plan—limiting deferrals and keeping service transitions smooth—would be a key factor supporting the modeled 3.99% year-over-year revenue growth.

What Could Shift the Stock Price

Share price sensitivity this quarter will likely center on margin commentary and earnings alignment versus the modeled path: $1.15 billion in revenue (+3.99% year-over-year), $201.34 million EBIT (+13.64%), and $1.36 adjusted EPS (+33.10%). A clear narrative on mix—the proportion of service and software relative to hardware—could influence how the market interprets earnings quality and durability. If Self-Service Banking demonstrates stronger service attachment and Payments and Network confirms expanded volumes or connections, the market could reward improved margin visibility. Conversely, a repeat of the prior quarter’s 31.58% quarter-on-quarter net profit decline would heighten scrutiny of cost structure and end-market demand timing, potentially overshadowing headline growth. Guidance language on the balance of recurring versus project-based revenue will matter; investors tend to favor recurring streams that support predictable cash generation and mitigate quarterly volatility.

Analyst Opinions

Within the specified January 1 to February 19 window, no identifiable sell-side previews or named institutional rating changes were captured that would allow a reliable bullish-versus-bearish ratio to be calculated. Given the limited documented commentary available in this period, the majority view cannot be established from collected opinions. In the absence of explicit analyst positioning, the near-term discussion among market participants typically centers on earnings mechanics: whether the company can deliver the modeled $1.15 billion in revenue and $201.34 million in EBIT while expanding adjusted EPS to $1.36 and supporting a margin narrative that addresses the prior quarter’s 31.58% quarter-on-quarter decline in GAAP net profit. Investors tend to benchmark reported results against the combination of year-over-year growth—3.99% revenue and 33.10% adjusted EPS—and qualitative disclosures about mix, backlog conversion, and managed services intensity. A well-supported explanation of margin drivers, evidence of stable service utilization in Self-Service Banking, and tangible expansion in Payments and Network would likely be interpreted constructively, whereas an earnings miss attributed to timing slippage or unfavorable mix could prompt caution until clearer proof of margin recovery is presented.