The seasonal influenza, caused by influenza viruses, is an acute respiratory infectious disease. Type A and B influenza viruses circulate annually, with Type A capable of causing global pandemics. The peak flu season in the Northern Hemisphere typically runs from October to February each year. This high-incidence period coincides with China’s winter and spring outbound travel boom. In recent years, as China’s border policies continue to ease, outbound travel has surged. International travel, a key driver of global flu transmission, is exacerbating the risk of influenza spread, posing significant challenges to public health and healthcare systems.

According to the *Diagnosis and Treatment Protocol for Influenza (2025 Edition)*, during flu season, high-risk patients with severe or critical influenza-like symptoms should receive antiviral treatment as early as possible, ideally within 48 hours of symptom onset. Given the prevalence of multiple pathogens, pathogen testing is recommended before initiating antiviral therapy to guide treatment.

Drug selection is critical in influenza treatment. Currently, three types of antiviral drugs are available in China: neuraminidase inhibitors, RNA polymerase inhibitors, and hemagglutinin inhibitors. Most are effective against both Type A and B influenza. Based on expert consensus, oseltamivir and baloxavir marboxil are the preferred treatments among domestically approved drugs.

While multiple drugs provide ample options for clinical treatment, competition in the flu drug market has intensified. In China, after Roche’s oseltamivir patent expired in 2016, domestic generic versions proliferated, with nearly 140 approvals granted. Baloxavir marboxil has also seen approvals for products from companies like Taifeng Pharmaceutical and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group. Additionally, this year, Qingfeng Pharmaceutical and Zhong Sheng Pharma have launched innovative flu drugs.

How will this fierce competition reshape the industry landscape?

**Market Demand Heats Up** With China’s outbound travel expected to exceed 155 million trips in 2025, international travel is amplifying flu transmission risks. The WHO estimates 1 billion seasonal flu cases annually, including 3–5 million severe cases, leading to 290,000–650,000 deaths worldwide.

Dr. Li Dongzeng, a professor at Beijing You’an Hospital, emphasized that flu is far from a “severe cold.” For high-risk groups like the elderly, children, pregnant women, and those with underlying conditions, flu can trigger severe complications, even proving fatal. Travel-related infections further complicate healthcare access abroad.

Studies show that within three days of symptom onset, household transmission rates reach 38%, climbing to 50% within 10 days. Dr. Li advised travelers to get vaccinated annually and consider antiviral prophylaxis, such as baloxavir marboxil, which reduces viral transmission and requires just a single dose.

The *Expert Consensus on Rational Use of Anti-Influenza Drugs (2025 Edition)* highlights vaccination as the primary preventive measure. For high-risk groups, early antiviral treatment (within 48 hours) with oseltamivir, zanamivir, or baloxavir marboxil is recommended to mitigate symptomatic flu risks.

**Escalating Competition** Oseltamivir, a neuraminidase inhibitor, remains the most widely used flu antiviral, developed by Roche and approved in China in 2001. Post-patent expiration in 2016, generics flooded the market, with 138 approvals recorded as of November 2025.

Baloxavir marboxil, Roche’s second-gen “flu wonder drug,” entered China in 2021 and was swiftly included in the national医保 (health insurance) list. Its sales surged from ¥300,000 in 2021 to over ¥1.5 billion by 2024. Domestic versions from CSPC and Taifeng have since entered the market, with 20 clinical trials underway by other firms.

New entrants like Qingfeng’s marboxavir and Zhong Sheng’s onradivir, approved in 2025, are vying for医保 inclusion, which could further disrupt the market.

Despite fierce competition, growth prospects remain robust. China’s anti-flu drug market hit ¥10.74 billion in 2023, up 197.51% year-on-year, with projections of a 20.2% CAGR through 2028, reaching ¥26.9 billion.