**Editor's Market View**

Month-end effects combined with renewed U.S. tariff concerns led the Hang Seng Index to retreat to its 20-day moving average last week. This week's market focus centers on the U.S. government shutdown issue, as government funding expires on September 30, potentially endangering millions of federal workers' jobs. Congress must pass or extend a spending bill before October 1 to avoid a government shutdown. Trump plans to meet with congressional leaders. Historically, agreements are ultimately reached, with shutdown probability remaining low. Another focus is U.S. employment data, particularly Friday's September non-farm payroll report. Based on various forecasts, no surprises are expected.

Confidence-boosting news came from China's August industrial profits above designated size, which turned from a 1.5% decline in the previous month to a 20.4% increase. This indicates that anti-involution policies are taking effect in sectors like metals, cement, and solar, which combined with the interest rate cut backdrop may attract capital inflows. Since the market has already adjusted in advance, October market performance looks relatively optimistic.

Moore Threads' Science and Technology Innovation Board IPO application was approved, taking only 88 days from acceptance to approval. The Trump administration is considering imposing tariffs on foreign electronic devices based on the number of chips in each device, further stimulating domestic chip substitution strength.

Musk stated that Tesla is going all out to expand Optimus production scale. Additionally, media reports suggest Musk met with UAE National Media Office Director Abdullah bin Mohammed bin Butti Al Hamed at Tesla headquarters, with the Optimus robot also making an appearance. On Meta's side, the company announced development of humanoid robot systems at a strategic level equivalent to AR. Robotics sector awaits potential catalysts.

Weekend reports indicated that the new energy storage market faces chip shortages, with some storage battery cell companies having orders booked until next year. Energy storage funds began warming up last week.

**Weekly Golden Stock**

TONGGUAN GOLD (00340): The company is a developing gold mining enterprise mainly engaged in gold mining, mineral processing, and recovery operations. The company's gold mining areas are located in Tongguan, Shaanxi Province, and Subei, Gansu Province. As of the end of 2024, the company maintains gold resources with an average grade of 8.26 grams per ton and resource reserves of 55 tons, achieving annual gold production of 2.5 tons. Additionally, in April this year, the company signed a long-term gold streaming agreement with Zijin Metal Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Zijin Mining. Zijin prepaid $25 million in cash as upfront funding support, with the company committing to deliver approximately 422 kilograms of gold from Subei Beidong Mining over the next nine years.

**Industry Observation**

Market sources indicate that Meta recently concluded the launch of new AI glasses, with supply chain orders for this year reaching 12-13 million units, and next year's forecast revised upward to 30 million units. 2025 shipment expectations: 5-6 million+.

Specifically analyzing shipment volumes, 2025H1 AI glasses overall shipments are expected at approximately 1.5 million+ units (YOY +250%), with Q3 estimated at 1.2-1.5 million units (YOY +300%), totaling approximately 3 million+ units for the first three quarters of 2025. Q4 is expected to see 2.5-3 million shipments due to new product catalysts (YOY +300%, QOQ +100%), with rational expectations of 5-6 million+ units for the full year. 2026 shipment expectations: 15 million+ units.

Based on Q4's 3 million shipment volume annualized at approximately 12 million, Meta glasses are expected to soon break through annual ten-million sales volume, with RayBan 3 likely launching in 2026Q1, potentially enabling Meta to achieve 15 million+ units in 2026.

How to view current market expectations of 13 million/30 million for 2025/2026? From category sales perspective, Meta's AI glasses matrix will expand from Q3's 2 categories (RayBan/Oakley Meta) to 3 categories in Q4 (Oakley Meta Vanguard) plus minor RayBan Meta upgrades, with production scheduling gradually improving. From the perspective of different eyewear styles adapting to different populations, Q4 is expected to double Q3 shipments, approximately 2.5-3 million units. However, if expecting to achieve ten-million-level shipments in 2025, Q4 should ship 7 million+ units, about 5 times Q3 shipments, which may be relatively challenging.

From supply timing perspective, the supply chain preparation time from upstream electronic components to Meta glasses entering overseas warehouses may take 2-3 months, so some upstream supply chain 2025 shipment volumes may be reflected in 2026Q1-Q2. From supply chain security considerations, capacity-constrained components like chips and storage may involve advance ordering for inventory preparation. Meanwhile, Meta internally has high confidence in AI glasses products, with business currently in expansion phase, possibly providing suppliers with higher order expectations to respond to potential blockbuster scenarios.

Whether Meta's AI glasses achieve ten-million-level sales in 2025 or 2026, it successfully proves the viability of the AI glasses category. Hong Kong stocks worth watching include Sunny Optical (02382) and upstream silicon carbide substrate supplier SiC Supreme (02631).

**Market Data Analysis**

Hong Kong Exchange data shows Hang Seng Index futures (September) total outstanding contracts at 29,290, with net outstanding at 10,263. Hang Seng Index futures settlement date is September 29, 2024. Index futures settle this week. The Hang Seng Index is positioned at 26,128 points, with dense bull warrant areas approaching the central axis below, giving the index short-selling momentum.

Powell publicly stated that U.S. stocks are "quite highly valued." The U.S. Senate rejected the appropriations bill, with high probability of non-essential government departments ceasing operations from October 1. This week's Hang Seng Index outlook is bearish.

**Editor's Commentary**

Hong Kong stocks generally follow "seasonal patterns" around National Day holidays. Historical data shows that over the past decade, the Hang Seng Index has risen more than 72% of the time in the 7 days following the holiday. Huatai Securities further refined the rhythm as "pre-holiday defense - holiday gains - post-holiday switching": Southbound funds favor beauty care, utilities, and other consumer and defensive sectors before holidays, with consumer services and technology growth stocks leading during holidays, and despite short-term pullbacks after holidays, recovery typically occurs within a week. The 28.49% gain in the Hang Seng Index after the 2024 holiday also confirms the potential of such opportunities.

This year's positioning might follow "pre-holiday bottom-fishing of quality targets, post-holiday tracking of funds and policies," with key focus on AI and technology leaders, anti-involution beneficiary stocks, and holiday-benefiting consumer stocks. However, historical patterns are not iron laws; strict stop-loss settings, position control, and avoiding blind following are necessary.