Sinolink Securities Co., Ltd. has released a research report indicating that post-holiday channel checks suggest overall liquor sales during the Spring Festival period were in line with pre-holiday market expectations, with an estimated decline of approximately 10%-15% year-on-year across all channels. The continued weakness in liquor sales this year is primarily attributed to subdued demand from government and business-related consumption, reflecting incomplete recovery in certain consumption scenarios and a more cautious approach to business entertainment spending. In the consumer goods sector, the catering supply chain—including seasonings and frozen foods—demonstrated significant improvement during the holiday period. Increased gatherings and travel during the festival drove demand growth, while distributors maintained relatively cautious inventory levels prior to the holiday. Key viewpoints from Sinolink Securities are as follows:

Liquor Sector: Spring Festival Sales Meet Expectations, Feitian Moutai Leads in Volume and Price Based on post-holiday channel feedback, liquor sales during the Spring Festival were generally consistent with pre-holiday expectations, with an estimated year-on-year decline of 10%-15% across all channels. Some positive surprises included stable wholesale prices for Feitian Moutai before and during the holiday, with no significant decline—current case prices remain above ¥1,700. In certain regions, there were sporadic replenishment orders for mid-priced products, which is also related to recent trends of small-batch, frequent purchasing by retailers aimed at reducing capital occupation and inventory depreciation risks. This still reflects a degree of sales resilience. Breaking down by consumption scenario: the decline in liquor sales this year is mainly due to weak demand from government and business-related segments, indicating gaps in the recovery of certain consumption settings and more cautious spending on business entertainment. In contrast, mass consumer demand remained relatively stable, with growth in scenarios such as family gatherings, holiday gifting, and small-scale banquets. This pattern resembles the Spring Festival of 2014, when mass consumption began to fill the gap left by reduced government spending. Consequently, differentiated consumption scenarios correspond to varying sales performance across price segments: premium and budget segments outperformed mid-range products this Spring Festival. Demand for ultra-premium liquors like Feitian Moutai showed notable improvement, driven by factors such as wealth effects, enhanced price-value appeal stimulating consumer interest, and inventory restocking as prices rebounded from their lows before the holiday. Meanwhile, products in the ¥100-200 range also performed well, supported by resilient mass consumer demand. Sinolink Securities believes the most challenging period for the industry has passed, and external constraints on consumption will continue to ease. The stronger-than-expected sales performance of Feitian Moutai during the holiday has stabilized channel expectations for industry recovery and improved inventory tolerance, indirectly alleviating operational pressures. Liquor producers are also focusing on boosting sales and reducing inventory from the supply side. Despite the current off-season, the sector offers attractive investment value with favorable odds, supported by potential top-down allocation trends and improved sales and pricing dynamics due to a low base post-holiday.

Consumer Goods Sector: Catering Chain Exceeds Expectations, Snacks Maintain High Growth An extended Spring Festival holiday and ongoing policy support stimulated positive trends in dining and travel, boosting demand for consumer goods. The later timing of the festival and two additional holiday days contributed to high activity levels during the pre-holiday period. Government initiatives such as “Happy Spring Festival Shopping” subsidies and trade-in programs further encouraged consumer spending. Within the consumer goods segment, the catering supply chain—including seasonings and frozen foods—showed significant improvement during the holiday, driven by increased gatherings and travel. Distributors maintained cautious inventory levels before the festival, keeping stocks at reasonable levels. Restocking is expected to begin from late February to March amid strong sales, coupled with a low base from the first quarter of last year. After facing pressure from various external factors, demand in the sector is expected to bottom out and improve in 2026. Meanwhile, the snack segment continued to exhibit strong growth, with restocking anticipated after the holiday. Snack sales were robust before the festival, with impressive year-on-year shipment growth in January. Gift box products performed particularly well during the holiday, as snack retailers expanded their offerings of gift packages and boxes, while continuing to rapidly open new stores. Given the high proportion of snack sales during the Spring Festival, the sector is expected to achieve strong growth through channel expansion and new product launches. Additionally, gift box products in the dairy and beverage categories also performed well, though with significant structural differentiation. Functional and health-oriented beverages saw strong sales, with leading brands such as Dongpeng and Nongfu Spring showing rapid shipment growth and notable contributions from new products. In contrast, dairy products are still in a phase of moderate recovery, as the growing variety of gift options and declining prices for ambient milk have slightly reduced gifting demand. However, as supply-side adjustments progress, prices are expected to stabilize, and rising health awareness among consumers may create opportunities for structural upgrades in dairy, such as functional milk and chilled dairy products.

Investment Recommendations Given the strong performance of catering and snack demand during the Spring Festival, which is expected to drive post-holiday restocking, many companies are likely to see improved first-quarter earnings. Based on earnings certainty and growth potential, Sinolink Securities continues to recommend leaders in the catering supply chain, including Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (603288.SH), YIHAI INTL (01579), and Angel Yeast Co., Ltd. (600298.SH), as well as snack and gift box leaders such as ChaCha Food Co., Ltd. (002557.SZ) and WL DELICIOUS (09985). Investors are advised to monitor the new product launch schedules of Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH) and Nongfu Spring (09633), along with potential short-term pullback opportunities.

Risk Warning Potential risks include slower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, regional market competition, and food safety issues.