During a discussion exploring the intersection of traditional finance and future technology, top Wall Street strategist Tom Lee outlined a wild "black天鹅" scenario where the disruptor of the global financial system is not the Federal Reserve, but Elon Musk.

The former J.P. Morgan chief equity strategist and current co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat shared his views on gold in a recent podcast interview, eliciting gasps from the audience and laughter from fellow guests, including "The Big Short" author Michael Lewis and podcast host, SoFi Head of Investment Strategy Liz Thomas. Lee stated that gold is not only a "Lindy Effect" asset but also, in his view, a "demographic" story tied to nostalgia. Beyond that, he identified a "black swan" tail risk: the possibility that the world's richest person, Elon Musk, could discover a new asteroid and effectively become the world's central banker.

Lee suggested that gold is "likely a story related to demographics." He noted that Fundstrat conducts extensive demographic research and has found that "people's preferences change every other generation." For example, recreational vehicle (RV) sales peak approximately every 50 years. Referring to the pandemic-era RV sales boom, he said the last time sales were this strong was during the heyday of "I Love Lucy" in the 1950s.

"Children don't buy what their parents liked; they buy what their grandparents liked," he said, concluding that gold was "a really big investment" for Baby Boomers, while Generation X favored hedge funds and alternative investments.

Lee stated that the size of the gold market is comparable to the stock market, with data supporting this view. According to him, the total valuation of all "above-ground" gold globally is approximately $29 to $34 trillion, while the combined market capitalization of the "Magnificent Seven" US stocks is about $21 trillion.

"By the way," he added, "all the gold in the world could fit into an Olympic-sized swimming pool."

Lee continued, "Gold is a 'Lindy Effect' asset: because it has been viewed as a store of value for many years, it continues to be accepted as such. So, what could break this? This is where Musk comes in."

A key risk for gold lies in its above-ground reserves, Lee estimated. "The amount of gold still in the ground is millions of times what is above ground today," he said, while also noting that most studies indicate the majority of Earth's gold is not economically extractable. If the gold price becomes too high, he suggested this could create perverse incentives. "For instance, the 'Magnificent Seven' companies would certainly get into gold mining, right? Because mining gold would be more profitable than anything else, so why not?"

He added that another key risk is that gold "all comes from outer space," implying its origins from asteroid impacts on Earth. This means space companies could potentially discover more gold in space. "SpaceX might go on a Mars mission and bump into a gold-rich asteroid," Lee told the audience. "If Elon Musk... owned all that gold, he would become the new central bank."

When asked about synthetic gold, Lee agreed this represents a third risk: modern alchemy.

Regardless, Lee added that, based on Fundstrat's research, the gold price may have already "peaked." Fundstrat studied the relationship between gold and stock market capitalization over the past 100 years and found that they typically reach a 150% increase relative to each other before pulling back. Fundstrat noted that gold fell 9% on January 30th; looking back historically, a single-day drop of more than 9% for gold has only occurred three times, and each time it marked a peak for the gold price.

"So I'm not sure either, but if history is any guide, the gold price may have peaked," he said.