As the new year approaches, we extend our best wishes to all readers for prosperity, successful investments, and good health. Carrying this festive spirit, let's examine the detailed analysis of the voting results for five major financial instruments and their subsequent market performance.

As of February 14, 2026, the community voting results for five core financial instruments—London Silver, U.S. January Unemployment Rate, Nasdaq 100, New York Crude Oil, and London Gold—have been finalized. This poll covered precious metals, U.S. stock indices, international crude oil, and key U.S. macroeconomic employment data, providing a genuine reflection of the deviation between market forecasts and actual trends, offering valuable insights for gauging investor sentiment.

1. U.S. January Unemployment Rate: Excessive Market Pessimism, Data Outperforms Expectations 89% of investors predicted the U.S. January unemployment rate would exceed 4.4%, while only 5% expected it to be below 4.4%. This indicated extreme pessimism towards the U.S. labor market, compounded by broader economic recession concerns, leading to a widespread expectation of rising unemployment. However, the actual rate came in below 4.4%, significantly outperforming market consensus. The U.S. labor market demonstrated unexpected resilience, with strong employment data. Job growth in both the services and manufacturing sectors surpassed forecasts, and an increase in the labor force participation rate alleviated recession fears, providing the Federal Reserve with greater flexibility for future policy adjustments.

2. Nasdaq 100: Diverging Profit Expectations for Tech Stocks, Index Slightly Below Forecast Voting expectations showed 54% of investors believed the Nasdaq 100 would close within the 25,000-25,500 range, and 22% expected it between 25,500-26,000. Combined, 76% anticipated the index remaining above 25,000, reflecting optimism about tech earnings growth and confidence in sectors like AI. However, the index closed at or below 25,000, falling slightly short of the mainstream forecast. Disappointing earnings reports from some major tech companies, coupled with delayed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, led to a decline in risk appetite. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties weighed on tech stock valuations, preventing the Nasdaq from sustaining the higher levels anticipated by investors.

3. London Gold: Safe-Haven Demand and Rate Cut Expectations Align, Outcome Matches Forecast 78% of investors forecasted London Gold would settle within the 5,000-5,500 range, indicating strong recognition of gold's safe-haven properties and expectations for the commencement of a Fed rate-cutting cycle, bolstered by geopolitical risks. The gold price closed within the 5,000-5,500 range, perfectly aligning with the dominant market expectation. Despite positive unemployment data, persistent concerns about inflationary pressures and ongoing geopolitical conflicts continued to support demand for gold as a safe haven. Concurrently, dovish commentary from Federal Reserve officials maintained market expectations for future rate cuts, helping gold prices remain within the anticipated range.

4. London Silver: Safe-Haven Appeal Diminishes, Price Underperforms Expectations 38% of investors expected London Silver to close between 80-90, while 30% predicted it would break above 90. In total, 68% anticipated silver prices staying above 80, reflecting considerable confidence in its safe-haven attributes and concerns about inflation or geopolitical risks. However, the price settled in the 70-80 range, noticeably below the mainstream forecast. Better-than-expected U.S. unemployment data led to expectations of delayed Fed rate cuts, strengthening the U.S. dollar and putting downward pressure on precious metals. Furthermore, weak industrial demand expectations undermined support from silver's industrial uses, preventing the price from reaching the higher levels predicted by investors.

5. New York Crude Oil: Tight Supply-Demand Outlook, Price Slightly Below Forecast 58% of investors predicted New York crude oil would close above 65, reflecting expectations for continued OPEC+ production cuts, supply disruptions from geopolitical conflicts, and optimism about demand driven by global economic recovery. The oil price settled within the 60-65 range, slightly below the consensus view. A larger-than-expected build in U.S. crude inventories, alongside concerns about slowing global economic growth, weakened demand-side support. Simultaneously, the actual implementation of OPEC+ production cuts fell short of market expectations, limiting the tightening effect on supply and preventing oil prices from breaking the 65 barrier.

Community Survey Summary 1. Overall Expectation Deviation: In this survey, the actual outcomes for four of the five instruments were below or significantly below mainstream market expectations, with London Gold being the exception. This indicates a tendency among community investors towards excessive pessimism or optimism regarding macroeconomic conditions and asset prices, particularly evident in the misjudgment of the U.S. labor market. 2. Key Driving Factor: U.S. employment data was the core variable causing the expectation gap. The unexpectedly strong unemployment rate directly impacted precious metals and equity markets and also altered expectations for Federal Reserve policy, which subsequently affected prices of commodities like crude oil. 3. Investment Insight: When making asset allocation decisions, investors should avoid over-reliance on singular market sentiments or expectations. A comprehensive approach incorporating macroeconomic data, fundamentals, and policy signals is crucial. Additionally, closely monitoring the impact of key data releases, such as non-farm payrolls and inflation, allows for timely adjustments to expectations and portfolio structures, mitigating risks associated with expectation deviations.