Bank of America Securities Raises Price Targets for Hong Kong Property Stocks by Average of 10%, Names LINK REIT as Top Lagging Play

Stock News
Feb 12

Bank of America Securities has released a research report indicating a divergence in market views following recent investor interactions. Non-local offshore general investors are reportedly more optimistic about Hong Kong's property price outlook. However, local, mainland Chinese, and property fund investors are more focused on whether valuations have already fully priced in positive factors. Overall, investors appear consistently willing to overlook near-term low yields, anticipating the property market is entering a multi-year cyclical recovery phase. Against this backdrop, Bank of America Securities has raised price targets for several property stocks by an average of 10%, reflecting a narrowing discount to net asset value targets, driven by strong Hong Kong development project sales and robust high-end retail performance. The bank also adjusted earnings per share forecasts for Hysan Development and Sun Hung Kai Properties for fiscal years 2025 to 2028, based on updated project completion schedules. Among developers, Bank of America Securities favors CK Asset Holdings and Sino Land due to their higher sensitivity to property price increases. For landlords, the preference is for Swire Properties and Hang Lung Properties, citing their higher dividend yields and resilient mainland luxury retail performance. Conversely, LINK REIT is identified as the bank's top pick among lagging stocks, contrary to market consensus. This view is based on its widened valuation gap compared to peers, with a dividend yield reaching 7%, and the belief that short-term e-commerce challenges are already reflected in its price. Bank of America Securities noted that Hong Kong developers have already priced in 15% to 20% transaction value growth for this year and next into their share prices, with the bank forecasting property price increases of 10% to 15% over the same period. However, two major risks were highlighted: the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has signaled limited room for further cuts to the prime rate, and preferential five-year mortgage rate offers from Hong Kong banks are set to expire at the end of April. If expected two rate cuts by the end of 2026 do not materialize, banks might revert to floating-rate mortgage plans. Additionally, the median monthly household income in Hong Kong stagnated in the first nine months of 2025, and the number of approved immigrant visas year-on-year declined in 2025. A continuation of these trends could ultimately constrain the potential for further property price appreciation.

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