Market Analysis Online quotes show: - **Gemini Cooperation**: Maersk's Shanghai-Rotterdam Week 48 price at $1,215/$2,030; HPL spot rates for late November at $1,435/$2,335, early December at $1,935/$3,235, and late December at $2,435/$4,035. Maersk announced a December rate hike to $2,080/$3,200. - **MSC + Premier Alliance**: MSC’s late November rate at $1,425/$2,365; ONE’s late November at $1,235/$1,935, early December at $1,565/$2,435; HMM’s Shanghai-Rotterdam late November at $1,268/$2,106; YML’s Nov 15–30 quote at $1,250/$2,000. MSC announced an early December hike to $1,860/$3,100. - **Ocean Alliance**: CMA’s Shanghai-Rotterdam late November at $1,585/$2,745, early December between $3,445–$3,545/FEU, late December at $3,945–$4,045; EMC’s late November at $1,855/$2,810; OOCL’s late November between $2,300–$2,400/FEU.

Geopolitical Update: Two Israeli sources indicate the U.S. is pressuring Israel to address Hamas militants in Rafah. U.S. envoy Wittkoff plans to meet senior Hamas officials.

Supply Dynamics: - November’s remaining weeks average weekly capacity at 293,100 TEU (Weeks 47/48/49: 276,400/284,200/318,800 TEU). - December’s average weekly capacity at 312,900 TEU (Weeks 50–53: 292,800/276,700/322,400/359,400 TEU). - November saw 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN (MSC/PA: 4 blanks; Gemini: 1 blank; OA: 5 blanks + 1 TBN likely converting to blank). December has 5 TBNs and 1 blank (OA: 4 TBNs; MSC/PA: 1 TBN + 1 blank).

December Contract Outlook: Focus shifts to pricing execution. Carriers aim to stabilize 2026 contract negotiations by maintaining high rates. Current Maersk late-November quotes dropped to $2,000–$2,100/FEU; MSC at $1,425/$2,365; PA Alliance at $1,900–$2,100/FEU; OOCL at $2,300–$2,400/FEU. Mid-to-late November price center around $2,100–$2,200/FEU. Maersk’s December hike to $2,080/$3,200 and MSC’s to $1,860/$3,100 suggest early December may settle near $2,500. Monitor Maersk’s early-December opening rates next week.

February 2026 Contract: Settlement timing confirmed: EC2602’s final trading day is February 9, 2026, with the settlement price averaging January 26, February 2, and February 9 rates. Lunar New Year (February 16) may delay carrier pricing strategies, potentially aligning February valuations with December if high rates persist into January.

Market Data (as of November 16, 2025): - Total open interest for European route futures: 73,293 lots; daily volume: 29,643 lots. - EC2602 at 1,605.00; EC2604 at 1,157.70; EC2606 at 1,377.90; EC2608 at 1,486.70; EC2510 at 1,103.50; EC2512 at 1,790.00. - SCFI (Shanghai-Europe): $1,417/TEU; SCFI (Shanghai-US West): $1,823/FEU; SCFI (Shanghai-US East): $2,600/FEU.

2025 Fleet Deliveries: 226 vessels delivered (1.879M TEU total), including 71 ships of 12,000–16,999 TEU (1.072M TEU) and 12 ships >17,000 TEU (253,800 TEU).

Strategy: - Single contract: December strong, February moderately strong. - Arbitrage: None.

Risks: - Downside: Unexpected economic downturns, oil price drops, excess vessel deliveries, unresolved Red Sea crisis. - Upside: Economic recovery, supply chain disruptions, carrier capacity cuts, prolonged Red Sea disruptions.

Disclaimer: This report is based on publicly available information and is for reference only. Huatai Futures holds copyright and reserves all rights.