Hong Kong Stocks Movement | Livestock Stocks Rally, Short-Term Factors Do Not Affect Long-Term Meat and Milk Cycle Resonance, Profitability of Dairy-Beef Linked Model Companies Stand Out
Stock News
Oct 16
According to reports, livestock stocks have collectively risen. As of the time of writing, <09858>YOURAN DAIRY09858> rose 6.71% to HKD 3.34; <01117>CH MODERN D01117> increased by 4.2% to HKD 1.24; <01431>YST DAIRY01431> grew by 1.82% to HKD 0.28; and <01432>CHINA SHENGMU01432> climbed 1.45% to HKD 0.35. Citic Securities Investment published a report indicating that, in the short term, the recent slowdown in the liquidation of dairy cow inventories has led to an overall decline in livestock-related stock prices. However, these short-term factors will not impact the underlying cyclical logic. The logic of resonance between meat and milk cycles remains unchanged. Looking ahead, with seasonal demand anticipated to weaken and the ongoing operational pressures faced by relevant pastures, the inventory of dairy cows will continue to trend down, bringing the inflection point for the raw milk cycle closer. Tianfeng Securities previously noted that the current reduction in dairy cow production capacity may be nearing completion. Pressure from funding related to Q3 silage purchases might prompt a quicker clearance at the margins, with raw milk prices likely approaching a bottom. Beef prices could see a turning point, although multiple factors such as financing, confidence, and environmental standards may impact the enthusiasm for restocking, potentially leading to unexpected increases in subsequent price rise and longevity. Companies possessing cow resources or adopting a "dairy-beef linked" model will reveal outstanding profitability. Attention is recommended on <09858>YOURAN DAIRY09858>, <01432>CHINA SHENGMU01432>, Guomai Meat Industry, <01117>CH MODERN D01117>, and Aoya Group.
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