Abstract

CVS Health will report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 10, 2026 Pre-Market, with investors looking for stabilization in retail pharmacy trends and clarity on medical-loss ratio pressures while weighing guidance updates for 2026 integration and cost initiatives.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter points to revenue near $103.59 billion, with adjusted EPS around $0.99 and EBIT near $2.47 billion on a year-over-year basis that implies mid-single-digit revenue growth and a low-single-digit improvement in earnings metrics. Margin expectations are restrained, with investors watching gross profit margin and net profit margin for signs of sequential stabilization rather than a sharp rebound, and a year-over-year EPS growth estimate of about 7.14%.

Across CVS Health’s operating engine, the near-term highlight is anticipated steady revenue in Health Services and Retail Pharmacy, offset by continued pressure in Health Care Benefits due to a higher medical-loss ratio. The most promising segment is Health Services, supported by scale in pharmacy benefits and care delivery, with last quarter revenue of $49.27 billion and continued low- to mid-single-digit year-over-year momentum.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, CVS Health reported revenue of $102.87 billion, a gross profit margin of 12.89%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of -$3.98 billion, a net profit margin of -3.89%, and adjusted EPS of $1.60, with year-over-year revenue growth of 7.80% and adjusted EPS growth of 46.79%. Quarter-on-quarter net profit swung sharply, with the net profit change at -489.32% as charges weighed on GAAP results.

A key highlight was that adjusted EBIT of $3.46 billion exceeded internal and market expectations despite integration and reimbursement headwinds, indicating operational resilience. Main business highlights included Health Services revenue of $49.27 billion, Retail and Consumer Health revenue of $36.21 billion, and Health Care Benefits revenue of $35.99 billion, underscoring broad-based scale with the Health Services segment remaining the largest revenue contributor.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business trajectory: Retail pharmacy and consumer health

Retail and Consumer Health remains a central barometer for sentiment on CVS Health’s operating performance. Store-level traffic, front-store sales mix, and prescription volumes are expected to provide incremental revenue stability, supported by immunization demand normalization and chronic prescription adherence. The segment’s leverage on pharmacy reimbursement contracts, generic dispensing mix, and operating expense discipline is likely to shape gross margin trajectory. Management’s recent actions around cost controls and store optimization should help offset pricing and wage inflation pressures, keeping margins in a narrow band.

From a revenue standpoint, the unit is positioned to maintain a mid-single-digit cadence but is not expected to drive margin expansion without improvement in reimbursement dynamics and better purchasing terms. Investors will look for color on front-store mix shifting toward higher-margin categories and whether script growth can outpace reimbursement compression. Any commentary around seasonal factors—such as cough, cold, and flu activity—will feed into short-term earnings sensitivity. Compared with last quarter’s scale, the segment’s contribution should be stable, though magnitude is likely secondary to Health Services and Health Care Benefits in driving consolidated variability.

Most promising growth engine: Health Services (pharmacy benefit and care delivery)

Health Services stands out for revenue durability and integrated economics across pharmacy benefit management and care delivery. The pipeline for client retention and renewals can mitigate unit cost inflation and specialty drug pricing volatility, while scale in specialty and mail has historically supported top-line momentum. For the to-be-reported quarter, investors expect this segment to continue delivering consistent revenue near last quarter’s $49.27 billion, aided by specialty volumes and service penetration, with a moderate year-over-year uptick anticipated.

Earnings quality in this segment will depend on spread dynamics, rebates, and service fees, along with cost-to-serve efficiencies. Commentary on specialty trend management and biosimilar adoption will be a focal point for margin sustainability. In the care delivery footprint, operational throughput and payer alignment are expected to gradually improve as integration matures, though near-term margin uplift may remain incremental. As a result, Health Services continues to be viewed as the most promising segment for CVS Health due to scale advantages and predictable cash generation, supporting consolidated EBIT even in a tighter margin environment.

Key stock-price swing factor: Health Care Benefits and medical-loss ratio

The Health Care Benefits segment’s medical-loss ratio (MLR) and utilization patterns are likely to be the most consequential driver for the equity this quarter. Elevated utilization—particularly in outpatient and certain specialty procedures—has been a headwind across managed care, and investors will seek evidence of stabilization. Any shift in trend, whether seasonal normalization or persistent pressure, will significantly influence margin expectations and full-year outlooks. The combination of pricing actions, product mix, and risk-adjustment dynamics will also shape the near-term profitability profile.

Beyond MLR, membership trends and bid season commentary will be key. Stronger membership growth paired with normalized utilization could rebuild confidence in the earnings trajectory. Conversely, a stickier high-MLR environment would push investors to reevaluate margin recovery timing despite resilient top-line growth. The path of reserves, adverse development, and any commentary on 2026 pricing will be closely scrutinized since they carry implications for near-term EPS sensitivity and longer-term ROIC.

Analyst Opinions

Cumulative views over the recent period tend to lean cautiously constructive, with a majority of analysts maintaining positive or neutral-to-positive stances on the near-term print given visibility into Health Services stability and cost actions. Positive views emphasize durable top-line drivers in pharmacy benefit operations, improving integration synergies, and manageable capital allocation, while acknowledging that MLR volatility remains a swing factor for the Health Care Benefits business. On the other hand, less optimistic opinions highlight the risk of persistent utilization pressure and potential reimbursement compression, which could cap margin expansion in the near term.

A number of well-followed institutions have pointed to Health Services as the ballast for consolidated performance and have framed their expectations around a moderate revenue increase with EPS tracking close to estimates. Strategists note that guidance framing for 2026 and color on integration initiatives may shape post-earnings sentiment as much as the reported quarter. Overall, the majority tone is constructive, expecting CVS Health to meet or slightly exceed revenue and adjusted EPS estimates while keeping a conservative stance on margins until utilization trends clearly normalize.