Research Report: Optimized P/E Ratio Factor Strategy Based on 10-Year Backtesting

Deep News
Nov 06

**Key Investment Insights** **Low-P/E portfolios significantly outperform high-P/E portfolios** Backtesting was conducted by selecting the 20 stocks with the lowest P/E ratios and the 20 with the highest P/E ratios from all A-shares. The results revealed stark differences between the two groups. From May 7, 2014, to October 27, 2025, the low-P/E portfolio outperformed the CSI 300, delivering an annualized return of 8.70% and an excess return of 42.38%. In contrast, the high-P/E portfolio underperformed the CSI 300, with an excess return of -42.06%. During market cycles favoring growth stocks (2020–2021), the low-P/E portfolio slightly lagged the CSI 300, reflecting periodic inefficiencies in the low-P/E factor. However, post-2022, as market sentiment shifted back to value stocks, the low-P/E portfolio reached new highs.

**Enhancing P/E portfolios with institutional coverage** Adding a filter for stocks with "over 10 institutional ratings" improved backtest results. From May 7, 2014, to October 27, 2025, the low-P/E portfolio achieved higher returns with minimal volatility increase and reduced maximum drawdown, yielding an annualized return of 12.83% and an excess return of 181.54% against the CSI 300. The high-P/E portfolio also showed marked improvement, with an annualized return of 11.34% and a positive excess return of 124.64%. Institutional coverage effectively filtered out overvalued, speculative stocks while retaining high-growth potential names.

**Expanding low-P/E portfolios to mitigate sector bias** Increasing the low-P/E portfolio size from 20 to 50 stocks enhanced performance. The diversified 50-stock portfolio reduced exposure to sector-specific risks and value traps, delivering an annualized return of 12.28% and an excess return of 159.46% over the same period.

**Low P/E percentile as the top-performing single factor** Historical P/E percentile, which measures a stock’s current valuation relative to its past range, was tested as a standalone factor. A portfolio of the 20 stocks with the lowest 6-month P/E percentiles outperformed all previous strategies, generating an annualized return of 17.34% and an excess return of 409.30% against the CSI 300. However, adding institutional coverage slightly reduced returns, likely due to excluding high-potential, less-researched stocks.

**Risk Warnings** - Historical performance does not guarantee future results. - Backtesting excludes actual transaction costs. - Potential data inaccuracies may exist.

**1. Preliminary P/E Factor Backtesting** The P/E ratio, calculated as stock price divided by earnings per share (EPS), is a classic valuation metric. This study uses trailing twelve-month (TTM) P/E for timeliness. Low P/E may indicate undervaluation, while high P/E often reflects growth expectations but carries downside risks.

**Single-Factor P/E Backtest (2014–2025)** Portfolios of the 20 lowest- and highest-P/E stocks were rebalanced semi-annually (May 7 and November 7), excluding loss-making and ST/*ST stocks. Key results: - **Low-P/E (20 stocks):** Annualized return 8.70%, excess return 42.38%, max drawdown -43.62%. - **High-P/E (20 stocks):** Annualized return 5.05%, excess return -42.06%, max drawdown -73.61%.

**2. P/E + Institutional Coverage Backtest** Adding "10+ institutional ratings" improved both portfolios: - **Low-P/E + coverage:** Annualized return 12.83%, excess return 181.54%. - **High-P/E + coverage:** Annualized return 11.34%, excess return 124.64%.

**3. Sector-Neutral P/E Optimization** **Expanded portfolios (50 stocks):** - Low-P/E: Annualized return 12.28%, excess return 159.46%. - High-P/E: Annualized return 6.66%, excess return -8.99%.

**P/E Percentile Factor:** The 20 lowest-P/E-percentile stocks delivered the best results (annualized return 17.34%, excess return 409.30%), though adding coverage slightly reduced returns.

**Conclusion** The low-P/E percentile factor, particularly when sector-neutral, offers superior risk-adjusted returns. Institutional coverage enhances stability but may cap upside potential. Diversification mitigates sector risks, making larger portfolios more resilient.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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