CHALCO (02600) fell more than 5% during trading, with a decline of 5.03% to HK$10.58 at the time of reporting, recording a turnover of HK$787 million.

The drop follows a Goldman Sachs research report maintaining a bearish stance on aluminum prices, forecasting a decline to $2,350/ton by Q4 2026 and projecting prices to remain below current levels until the early 2030s. The bank expects new supply to push the market into surplus, noting that while aluminum demand will benefit from drivers similar to copper and substitution effects, it won’t face the same resource constraints as copper.

In contrast, JPMorgan remains optimistic about the aluminum sector’s outlook for next year. Under its base-case scenario, the bank anticipates moderate oversupply in 2026 due to new supply from Indonesia, though potential supply disruptions and slower-than-expected restarts of overseas capacity could tighten the market beyond baseline projections.