Goldman Sachs recently published a research report stating that AstraZeneca PLC (AZN.US) previously announced positive results from Baxdrostat in the BaxHTN Phase III clinical trial at the 2025 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Annual Congress. Baxdrostat demonstrated strong efficacy in treating hypertension during clinical trials, potentially bringing AstraZeneca billions of dollars in sales opportunities. Goldman Sachs assigned AstraZeneca a "Buy" rating with a 12-month price target of $99. This target price represents approximately 23% upside from the stock's Tuesday closing price of $80.19.

Data released by AstraZeneca showed that Baxdrostat achieved primary and all secondary endpoints in the BaxHTN Phase III trial, delivering significant and sustained blood pressure reduction in patients with difficult-to-control hypertension. Trial results demonstrated that compared to placebo, patients with difficult-to-control (uncontrolled and resistant) hypertension receiving both Baxdrostat doses (2mg and 1mg) on top of standard antihypertensive therapy for 12 weeks showed statistically significant and clinically meaningful reductions in mean seated systolic blood pressure (SBP). In the trial, Baxdrostat also achieved all confirmatory secondary endpoints. The 2mg dose group demonstrated sustained long-term antihypertensive effects. Both 2mg and 1mg dose groups achieved more significant diastolic blood pressure reductions, with patients achieving systolic blood pressure <130mmHg at nearly three times the rate compared to the placebo group. Additionally, Baxdrostat was generally well-tolerated with no unexpected safety concerns identified.

According to available information, Baxdrostat is a highly selective aldosterone synthase inhibitor (ASI) that targets one of the hormones responsible for elevated blood pressure and increased cardiovascular and renal risks. Currently, the drug is undergoing clinical trials globally with over 20,000 patients enrolled across studies including monotherapy for hypertension and primary aldosteronism, combination with dapagliflozin for chronic kidney disease and hypertension, and heart failure prevention in hypertensive patients.

Dr. Bryan Williams, Principal Investigator of the BaxHTN Phase III trial and Professor of Medicine at University College London, stated: "The BaxHTN Phase III clinical trial results are exciting, with Baxdrostat achieving nearly 10mmHg placebo-adjusted systolic blood pressure reduction, a magnitude that could significantly reduce the risk of heart attacks, strokes, heart failure, and kidney disease. These study data indicate that aldosterone plays a more important role in difficult-to-control hypertension than previously recognized, highlighting the importance of Baxdrostat's innovative mechanism of action and its potential impact, which could benefit millions of hypertensive patients whose blood pressure remains difficult to control despite multiple treatments."

Reportedly, Baxdrostat is expected to receive approval in the US and Europe in the first half of 2026, potentially becoming the world's first marketed aldosterone synthase inhibitor (ASI) antihypertensive drug.

Goldman Sachs stated in its research report that Baxdrostat's BaxHTN Phase III trial data represents a clear positive for AstraZeneca, with efficacy meeting the firm's prior expectations. The firm added that based on discussions with industry professionals, Baxdrostat's efficacy is likely to generate significant interest among physicians. Goldman Sachs mentioned pharmaceutical company Mineralys Therapeutics' antihypertensive drug Lorundrostat also in development. The firm noted that compared to Lorundrostat's data in the Launch-HTN trial, Baxdrostat's mean seated systolic blood pressure reduction from baseline data was slightly inferior. Data showed that at week 12 of treatment, the Baxdrostat 2mg dose group achieved a placebo-adjusted mean seated systolic blood pressure reduction from baseline of 9.8mmHg (p<0.001). Meanwhile, at week 12 of treatment, the Lorundrostat (50mg) group achieved a placebo-adjusted mean seated systolic blood pressure reduction from baseline of 11.7mmHg (p<0.0001).

However, Goldman Sachs emphasized that considering the limitations of cross-trial comparisons and baseline characteristic differences, the firm believes the efficacy gap between the two drugs is limited. Simultaneously, the firm remains optimistic about Baxdrostat's competitive position, primarily based on its overall clinical performance, including impressive 24-hour and nighttime blood pressure control data, as well as manageable side effects.

Baxdrostat's BaxHTN Phase III clinical trial results have been simultaneously published in The New England Journal of Medicine. Some commentary noted that Baxdrostat requires more data to support efficacy durability. In Goldman Sachs' view, this means the new therapy still faces challenges in the commercialization process, requiring substantial physician education and supplementary clinical data, areas where AstraZeneca possesses strong execution capabilities.

Overall, given Baxdrostat's strong BaxHTN Phase III clinical trial results, Goldman Sachs continues to view it as a long-term key driver for AstraZeneca's CVRM (cardiovascular, renal, and metabolic diseases) business. The firm believes that considering potentially earlier market entry, convenient dosing, potentially longer duration of action (requiring trial confirmation), and comparable safety and efficacy, Baxdrostat is well-positioned against potential key competitor Lorundrostat.

Additionally, Goldman Sachs believes that Baxdrostat's data in the BaxHTN Phase III clinical trial should support AstraZeneca's combination drug strategy for this medication. Beyond the combination project with Farxiga, the firm is also monitoring potential combinations with other CVRM pipeline assets, such as oral GLP-1 combinations, particularly given the drug's strong efficacy signal in high BMI patients in the BaxHTN Phase III trial, and the overlap between aldosteronism and obesity.

In the firm's view, this data will further enhance market confidence in Baxdrostat's prospects and billions of dollars in sales potential, while helping AstraZeneca progress toward its 2030 revenue target of $80 billion.