Abstract

Vir Biotechnology, Inc. will report its fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 23, 2026 Post Market, with forecasts pointing to a sharp year-over-year revenue rebound and narrowing losses, while recent institutional commentary skews bullish on near-term execution and clinical catalysts.

Market Forecast

Consensus-style forecasts for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 indicate total revenue of $23.18 million, an adjusted EPS of -$0.49, and EBIT of -$67.36 million, implying year-over-year changes of 184.80% for revenue, 43.98% improvement for adjusted EPS, and 51.33% improvement for EBIT. Gross profit margin and net profit margin guidance are not available.

The revenue mix is expected to stabilize versus last quarter’s composition, which was driven by grants and a negative collaboration adjustment, and the near-term outlook hinges on the timing of collaboration, milestone, and grant inflows together with operating discipline. The most promising pipeline segment remains the chronic hepatitis delta program, a pre-commercial asset with clinical milestones anticipated in 2026; revenue and year-over-year contribution for this segment are not yet applicable as it is not generating product revenue.

Last Quarter Review

Vir Biotechnology, Inc. posted revenue of $0.24 million in the prior quarter, a GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of -$163.00 million, and adjusted EPS of -$1.17, reflecting an -89.92% year-over-year revenue change and a 25.00% year-over-year improvement in adjusted EPS; gross profit margin and net profit margin were not available from the collected data.

A notable financial highlight was the quarter-on-quarter change in net profit at -47.03%, underscoring a challenging earnings base ahead of the anticipated recovery in the current quarter. Main business line items were concentrated in grants at $0.31 million, offset by collaboration-related adjustments of -$0.07 million; grants represented 127.08% of reported revenue, while collaboration adjustments represented -27.08%, aligning with the period’s $0.24 million net revenue.

Current Quarter Outlook

Revenue Composition and Operating Drivers

This quarter’s revenue forecast of $23.18 million signals a significant rebound from the prior period’s $0.24 million, pointing to less volatility in funding and collaboration timing. The $23.18 million projection implies a 184.80% year-over-year increase, suggesting that the revenue base is normalizing from a trough in the previous quarter. While the company’s gross margin and net margin metrics are unavailable in the collected dataset, the expected improvement in adjusted EPS (by 43.98% year-over-year to -$0.49) and EBIT (by 51.33% year-over-year to -$67.36 million) indicates a trajectory toward reduced operating losses.

The drivers behind this improvement appear to be a combination of stabilized grant recognition, potential collaboration revenue contribution, and tighter cost control embedded in the EBIT trend. The previous quarter’s revenue mix—comprised of $0.31 million in grants and -$0.07 million in collaboration—was unusually skewed due to adjustments, but the current quarter’s forecast implies the normalization of revenue recognition processes that typically underpin non-product revenue. Against that backdrop, the narrowing of losses in EBIT aligns with a disciplined spend pattern typical of late-stage clinical programs preparing for registrational milestones, reflecting an emphasis on prioritizing trials and reducing non-essential operating expenses.

In terms of earnings quality, the forecast suggests a better balance between revenue recognition and expenses, which often translates to reduced quarterly volatility. The relationship between EBIT and adjusted EPS this quarter shows that while the company remains in an investment phase, the quantum of losses is expected to shrink, strengthening the case for a more favorable earnings slope heading into the next few quarters. The key variable for investors will be whether the timing of grants, collaborations, and any milestone receipts tracks in line with expectations; a lag or pull-forward could meaningfully sway reported revenue and earnings.

Chronic Hepatitis Delta Program and Clinical Catalysts

The company’s most promising pipeline segment remains its chronic hepatitis delta program, which is expected to reach initial topline readouts from Phase 3 in 2026. On January 14, 2026, Vir Biotechnology, Inc. reported updated Phase 2 data showing that a combination of tobevibart and elebsiran yielded 88% of patients with no detectable hepatitis D virus in their blood at 96 weeks, and the regimen was well tolerated. These outcomes help support confidence in the clinical rationale and lend momentum to the Phase 3 program’s value proposition ahead of topline milestones.

With the program still pre-commercial, revenue and year-over-year contribution are not applicable; however, the near-term impact on valuation and sentiment can be material, given the mechanism-of-action validation lengthened to nearly two years in Phase 2. In parallel, Vir Biotechnology, Inc. indicated plans to present new Phase 1 data for VIR-5500, an experimental prostate-cancer therapy, at the Genitourinary Cancers Symposium in February, adding breadth to clinical news flow. While VIR-5500 is earlier-stage, and therefore not likely to drive near-term revenue, these updates help maintain investor attention during the ramp toward the more advanced hepatitis delta milestones.

In capital planning terms, the company ended 2025 with approximately $781.00 million in cash and investments, extending its cash runway into the fourth quarter of 2027. This supports the capacity to execute Phase 3 readouts and associated regulatory preparations without near-term financing pressure. For earnings this quarter, clinical events will mostly be sentiment drivers rather than line-item revenue contributors, but they can influence medium-term expectations for partnership economics, potential royalties, and eventual product revenues.

Stock Price Drivers: Earnings Slope, Cash Runway, and Guidance Signals

Three forces are likely to dominate share performance around the report date. First, the earnings slope is critical: forecasts of -$67.36 million EBIT this quarter, a 51.33% year-over-year improvement, and adjusted EPS of -$0.49, a 43.98% year-over-year improvement, suggest the loss trajectory is narrowing. If reported results align with or exceed these forecasts, investor confidence in near-term cash usage and operational efficiency should strengthen, potentially supporting the stock into subsequent clinical milestones.

Second, liquidity remains an important factor. With approximately $781.00 million in cash and investments at year-end 2025 and runway extending into the fourth quarter of 2027, the company’s capital position is compatible with sustained development activity and measured commercialization planning. This financial buffer can temper downside risk associated with trial delays or incremental R&D spend, and it enables management to pursue option-value tactics around partnership structures without immediate balance sheet pressure. For the current quarter, reiteration of runway and careful commentary about cash usage rates can be supportive for sentiment even if headline EPS remains negative.

Third, guidance signals, especially around collaboration dynamics and milestone timing, will be watched closely. Last quarter’s revenue mix, featuring grants of $0.31 million and a collaboration adjustment of -$0.07 million, highlighted the sensitivity of quarterly results to revenue recognition. Investors will parse management’s language for clarity on expected cadence of collaborations, milestones, and grants across the next few quarters, as that cadence feeds into the reliability of quarterly revenue and EPS trajectories. A more predictable cadence typically attracts broader investor participation, while a pattern of unexpected variance can dampen confidence even if the annual trajectory remains intact.

Beyond these core drivers, the cadence of clinical communications—including any updates on Phase 3 chronic hepatitis delta timelines—can materially influence the near-term trading range by shaping perceived probability-weighted outcomes. A well-articulated plan for Phase 3 and regulatory interactions would reduce uncertainty and improve the qualitative component of the investment thesis around the company’s pipeline timing.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional notes published from January 1, 2026 through February 16, 2026 are predominantly bullish, with 100% of tracked opinions in this window reiterating Buy ratings and no bearish calls observed. Barclays maintained a Buy rating with a $24.00 price target, commenting favorably on the company’s near-term execution and the valuation framework tied to pipeline milestones. TD Cowen’s Phil Nadeau reaffirmed a Buy rating, emphasizing improving fundamentals into 2026 and the potential impact of upcoming clinical readouts on investor sentiment. Raymond James also reiterated a Buy rating, setting a $12.00 price target and highlighting the opportunity for earnings stabilization as revenue normalizes from a depressed base.

The majority view centers on a thesis that combines improving quarterly comparables, robust liquidity, and a credible pipeline catalyst path. The forecasted 184.80% year-over-year revenue increase to $23.18 million, paired with an expected adjusted EPS of -$0.49 and EBIT of -$67.36 million, frames a quarter in which the loss slope meaningfully narrows. Analysts argue that this shift, even without explicit gross margin or net margin guidance, can be enough to reset expectations for the cadence of losses and begin to anchor a valuation construct around the Phase 3 chronic hepatitis delta program. While this program is pre-commercial and therefore not ready to contribute revenue, its Phase 2 profile—88% of patients without detectable virus at 96 weeks—has been positively received, providing a foundation for the Phase 3 value narrative.

The bullish contingent also points to the company’s approximate $781.00 million cash and investment balance at year-end 2025 and runway into the fourth quarter of 2027 as critical support for operational flexibility. This positioning reduces near-term financing concerns and allows management to make trade-offs that favor progression of pivotal trials. In the context of this quarter’s report, analysts expect that clarity around collaboration revenue timing, grants recognition, and expense prioritization will be central in determining the durability of the improving earnings slope. If management’s commentary indicates an intention to maintain discipline on operating expenses while signaling more predictable recognition of non-product revenue, the majority view anticipates that the stock can absorb the headline negative EPS and benefit from better forward visibility.

Across these bullish notes, the common thread is that near-term financial improvement—expressed in the form of revenue normalization and narrowed losses—intersects with a pipeline poised for key milestones in 2026. That combination is seen as sufficient to outweigh concerns tied to quarterly revenue timing variability, as long as the qualitative outlook remains intact. The consolidation of Buy ratings from multiple institutions supports the characterization of institutional views as predominantly bullish for this earnings cycle. In sum, the current quarter is framed as a bridge from a weak base to a steadier operational cadence, with clinical catalysts acting as the pivot for valuation as the fiscal year rolls forward.