Gold prices extended their rebound during the European trading session, touching a high near $4,465, largely recovering some of the previous trading day's losses. This rebound was primarily driven by a pullback in the U.S. dollar index. Market surveys indicated that the U.S. has postponed potential strikes on energy facilities in the Middle East and extended negotiation deadlines. This statement has eased market concerns about an escalation of conflict, thereby weakening safe-haven demand for the dollar and providing short-term support for gold.
However, from a broader perspective, gold's upward momentum remains insufficient. Although geopolitical risks have not completely dissipated, the market is more focused on their transmission effects on energy prices and inflation. With oil prices maintaining high levels, inflation expectations have heated up again, leading to significant changes in market expectations regarding the policy paths of major central banks. The prevailing view now is that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will maintain a hawkish stance, with the possibility of further interest rate hikes not ruled out.
This shift in expectations has directly contributed to U.S. Treasury yields remaining elevated, thereby putting pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. In a high-interest-rate environment, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, prompting capital to flow more towards yield-bearing assets, making it difficult for gold prices to form a sustained upward trend.
Furthermore, fluctuating news surrounding the Middle East situation has increased market uncertainty. On one hand, the U.S. has signaled a desire for de-escalation; on the other hand, relevant nations have denied progress in negotiations while military deployments continue. Although this uncertainty provides some support for safe-haven demand, it has not translated into sustained buying interest; instead, it has made market sentiment more cautious.
From a technical perspective, gold's daily chart shows clear signs of weakening. Prices previously broke below the key 100-day moving average, and this week's rebound encountered resistance near this average, confirming it as a significant resistance level. The current 100-day moving average is located near $4,630, representing a key hurdle that short-term bulls need to overcome. In terms of trend structure, the price has shifted from an uptrend to a range-bound, slightly bearish pattern, with the moving average system beginning to flatten and tilt slightly downward.
Regarding momentum indicators, the MACD continues to operate below the zero line, with the fast line below the slow line, indicating that bearish momentum still dominates. Although the RSI has rebounded from oversold territory, it remains in the low range near 30, reflecting weak market demand and suggesting the rebound is more corrective in nature. If the price cannot stabilize above key moving averages, the bearish structure is unlikely to change.
Observing the 4-hour chart, gold shows a short-term corrective rebound pattern, but upward momentum is clearly lacking. Prices have stalled after touching levels above $4,460, indicating significant selling pressure above. Short-term moving averages show some signs of turning but have not yet formed an effective bullish alignment. The MACD histogram briefly turned positive but quickly converged, indicating a lack of sustainability in the rebound. The RSI has recovered to the neutral zone but has not entered the strong range, suggesting limited bullish momentum.
Key technical levels show initial resistance above near $4,630, with further resistance in the $4,820 and $5,000 regions. Support below is located at $4,380; a break below this level could lead to a further decline towards the $4,120 area. Overall, while there is a short-term rebound, the structure remains bearish, warranting caution against the risk of prices pulling back after any rallies.
Currently, the gold market is in a typical phase of contention between 'safe-haven support' and 'interest rate pressure.' Although geopolitical tensions provide a floor for gold prices, rising inflation expectations and the trend towards higher interest rates significantly limit their upside potential. Technically, gold has not yet shaken off its downward pressure, and the rebound appears more as a periodic correction. In the short term, gold is expected to maintain a range-bound, weak pattern, while its medium-term trajectory will depend on changes in interest rate expectations and the direction of the U.S. dollar.