Title

Earning Preview: Tempus AI Q4 revenue is expected to increase by 77.95%, and institutional views are bullish

Abstract

Tempus AI will report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 24, 2026 Post Market; this preview distills consensus expectations for revenue and adjusted EPS alongside margin context, segment trends, and key catalysts into the print.

Market Forecast

For the quarter to be reported, Tempus AI’s latest aggregated projections point to revenue of $361.44 million, an increase of 77.95% year over year, with adjusted EPS estimated at -$0.04, reflecting an 81.62% year-over-year improvement, and EBIT narrowing to approximately -$0.06 million, indicating a 99.75% year-over-year improvement. While margin guidance has not been quantified, the company’s recent operating trajectory suggests that profitability is tracking closer to breakeven on an operating basis as scale benefits and product mix shift take hold. Momentum in the core diagnostics franchise appears healthy following the company’s own preliminary update that fourth-quarter diagnostics revenue grew 121% year over year, aided by new AI-enabled offerings and test uptake. The most promising segment remains diagnostics/Genomics, which generated $252.88 million in revenue in the prior quarter and, based on the company’s preliminary fourth-quarter disclosure, accelerated at 121% year-over-year growth.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, Tempus AI delivered revenue of $334.21 million, up 84.72% year over year, a gross profit margin of 62.82%, a GAAP net loss attributable to the company of $79.98 million equating to a -23.93% net margin, and adjusted EPS of -$0.11, a 56.00% improvement year over year. A notable financial highlight was a modest top-line outperformance versus internal and external models, with revenue exceeding the earlier estimate by $5.48 million and the EBIT loss coming in better than expected by $4.18 million. Main-business contribution remained concentrated in diagnostics/Genomics at $252.88 million, complemented by $81.33 million from Data and Services, while company-level revenue expanded 84.72% year over year on broad-based demand uplift and sustained ordering patterns across the client base.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Diagnostics momentum and revenue trajectory

Internal momentum into the fourth quarter centers on diagnostics, where preliminary company disclosures indicated 121% year-over-year growth. From a modeling perspective, the company’s $361.44 million revenue estimate implies a meaningful sequential increase from the $334.21 million achieved in the prior quarter and sits just below the preliminary fourth-quarter sales indication of $367.00 million. This sets up a constructive revenue trajectory into February 24, 2026, with the path of least resistance skewed toward a top-line beat if actuals track closer to the preliminary figure. Diagnostics growth is typically driven by test volume, clinical ordering breadth, and attach rates of algorithmic add-on products; given the recent launch cadence and positive clinical utility updates, these drivers continue to reinforce the short-term revenue profile. On the margin front, diagnostics scale typically supports absorption of fixed costs and more efficient logistics per test, which, together with disciplined pricing and payor coverage, can help stabilize gross margin even as volume ramps.

AI-enabled pathology and algorithmic testing as a growth engine

Tempus AI has highlighted new AI-enabled tools that augment its core offerings, including deployment of a digital pathology applications suite that is designed to extract actionable biomarkers from standard slides. In January 2026, the company also reported study results showing that its Immune Profile Score algorithmic test predicted outcomes for patients on immune checkpoint inhibitors more accurately than prior approaches, which supports clinical adoption and strengthens the evidence base. These developments matter for near-term revenue because they can increase the “attach rate” of algorithmic analyses to each diagnostic order, expanding average revenue per sample and deepening customer engagement. They also create cross-sell opportunities from the diagnostics base into additional testing categories and follow-on analyses, which is particularly relevant as Tempus AI targets EBIT breakeven over time; incremental, software-like revenues at high gross margin can meaningfully influence operating leverage. The expected $0.06 million EBIT loss this quarter, coupled with the high-60s gross margin backdrop in the prior report, suggests that blended mix improvements from AI applications have the potential to move the company materially closer to operating breakeven as volume scales.

Key stock-price drivers this quarter

Three variables appear poised to guide the share-price reaction around the print. First, whether reported fourth-quarter revenue lands closer to the internal estimate of $361.44 million or the preliminary $367.00 million matters for the magnitude of any perceived “beat” versus external consensus; small differences can translate to large swings in sentiment for rapidly scaling platforms. Second, the adjusted EPS trajectory is an important signal for investors tracking the journey toward profitability; the forecasted -$0.04 reflects an 81.62% year-over-year improvement, and any upside here would support the case for accelerating operating leverage. Third, commentary on algorithmic test adoption, digital pathology rollouts, and integration into clinical workflows can influence how the market underwrites 2026 growth and margin durability; updated disclosures on attach rates, payor interactions, or new partnerships may serve as catalysts for revisions. Against this backdrop, any update to full-year revenue pacing—especially relative to the recent indication that 2025 revenue reached $1.27 billion—will be scrutinized for consistency with the quarterly cadence and for the implications on cost structure and capital priorities.

Analyst Opinions

Across the January 1, 2026 to February 17, 2026 window, the balance of institutional commentary has leaned bullish following the company’s preliminary disclosure that fourth-quarter revenue reached $367.00 million, outpacing a contemporaneous consensus expectation of $360.00 million. Using the published previews available in this period, the ratio of bullish to bearish views skews to a clear majority bullish stance, with no explicit bearish initiations identified in the recent flow. The central rationale behind the positive tilt is twofold: upside to consensus in the preliminary fourth-quarter update and a strengthening product pipeline that reinforces diagnostic utility and potential revenue per order. FactSet’s fourth-quarter 2025 revenue consensus of $360.00 million as of mid-January 2026 provides a useful yardstick for evaluating the company’s internal and preliminary figures. The preliminary $367.00 million implies a modest top-line beat relative to that benchmark, while diagnostics revenue growth of 121% year over year adds evidence of accelerating demand within the core segment. Commentary from financial newswires through late January highlighted two incremental positives: the rollout of a new digital pathology applications suite designed to guide testing decisions and study results indicating improved predictive performance for the Immune Profile Score algorithmic test in immunotherapy, both of which signal tangible product progress that can underpin continued attach-rate and volume growth. From an analytical perspective, the bullish consensus rests on several testable assumptions for the upcoming release. Analysts and commentators expect that revenue growth will remain robust on a year-over-year basis, anchored by advanced diagnostics demand and contributions from AI-enabled offerings. They also expect the adjusted loss per share to continue narrowing; a forecasted -$0.04 adjusted EPS represents a material improvement over the -$0.11 reported in the prior quarter and implies that each successive cohort of volume is carrying higher gross profit dollars relative to its cost base. Finally, there is an expectation that operating losses will compress as the model scales; an EBIT forecast near -$0.06 million signals progress toward breakeven. The bull case therefore emphasizes upside risk around revenue and operating metrics as near-term catalysts, while recognizing that commentary on digital product adoption and clinical validation can serve as a secondary driver of estimate revisions. In the majority view, the preliminary fourth-quarter revenue beat versus consensus provides sufficient basis to expect at least an in-line or slightly positive revenue outcome on February 24, 2026 Post Market. The segment commentary is expected to highlight diagnostics as the key growth engine, with additional color on algorithmic test adoption trajectories and the ramp of the digital pathology suite. On the bottom line, bulls anticipate that the adjusted EPS loss will narrow in line with, or better than, the -$0.04 forecast, given the combination of improving gross profit conversion and tighter operating expense discipline relative to the revenue ramp. Together, these points underpin a constructive stance heading into the release, with the market primed to reward confirmation of the revenue trajectory, sustained gross margin quality, and signals that algorithmic and digital expansions are translating into tangible, repeatable economics.