The gold market has recently experienced unprecedented frenzy and volatility, with news about renowned economist Hong Hao's "perfect exit at the peak" causing a stir in investment circles. On November 28, he publicly announced that he had liquidated his gold holdings at a high of $4,500 per ounce, warning of an "inevitable bubble burst."
However, this "brilliant move" appears to contradict market data: mainstream gold prices never reached this level, with spot gold (London Gold) failing to even breach the $4,400 threshold. Was this an extraordinary exclusive trade or merely an attention-grabbing "verbal exaggeration"?
An investigation reveals that hidden peaks in non-mainstream contracts might hold the key to solving this mystery. Meanwhile, the newly appointed CIO of Lotus Capital has demonstrated remarkable monetization prowess—his paid knowledge platform, launched just over a month ago, has reportedly earned nearly 9.9 million yuan. A battle over authenticity, market positions, and influence is unfolding in the capital markets.
Historically, Hong Hao has been perceived as a staunch gold bull. He repeatedly emphasized gold's irreplaceable role as the "ultimate currency" amid persistent fiat currency devaluation, particularly with the weakening credibility of the U.S. dollar. He even suggested that "$10,000 per ounce is not a dream," advising investors to allocate 20% of their portfolios to gold for hedging.
However, in the second half of 2025, as gold prices surged wildly, Hong Hao's stance took a subtle yet pivotal turn. By mid-October, he warned that gold had entered "the most overbought state in human history," noting that seven consecutive weeks of gains had pushed risk far beyond reward. The subsequent market correction seemed to validate his view, with international gold prices declining through late October.
The controversy peaked in November. Early in the month, Hong Hao argued that bubble digestion would take time, describing the ongoing drop as a mere 10% retracement and predicting a deeper correction—"first a 1/3 drop, then a rebound, followed by another 1/3 decline." He declared gold had entered a "high-volatility phase" and urged investors to wait for better entry points. Then, on November 28, with spot gold hovering around $4,200, he abruptly revealed he had sold all his gold at $4,500 per ounce, labeling the market a "massive price momentum bubble destined to burst."
This statement triggered a market "earthquake." For most traders, "$4,500" was a number never seen on their screens. Market observers pointed out that neither spot nor major futures contracts had even approached $4,400 recently, raising questions about the origin of Hong Hao's claimed price.
Facing mounting skepticism, Hong Hao shared a screenshot, clarifying that his trades were in "gold futures." Yet this only deepened the mystery. When pressed for transaction records, he replied, "I don’t need to prove anything to anyone." Attempts to reach him for comment were unsuccessful.
To verify the claims, a review of COMEX gold futures data revealed that non-mainstream contracts, such as the 2608 and 2610, did briefly spike above $4,500 on October 20 (peaking at $4,522 and $4,539, respectively). While this offers some support for his statement, liquidity concerns remain.
Data shows the 2608 contract’s daily open interest ranged between 4,300 and 4,500 lots during those days, with trading volumes as low as 819 lots and never exceeding 1,499. "While $4,500 trades aren’t impossible, non-mainstream contracts are illiquid with wide spreads," noted a futures analyst. Given the minimal volume above $4,500, large-scale exits at that price seem improbable.
Industry veterans added that institutional traders typically focus on mainstream contracts. The current COMEX gold benchmark (2602 contract) had an open interest of 320,000 lots and daily volume of 220,000 lots—far exceeding non-mainstream activity. Its all-time high was $4,433 on October 20, never reaching $4,500.
"With the 2608 contract trading just hundreds of lots daily, it’s unlikely to be Hong Hao’s primary vehicle," speculated one expert. His "$4,500" claim may have been rhetorical—rounding up the actual $4,433 peak to emphasize a timely exit.
Despite lingering doubts over the trade’s specifics, Hong Hao’s commercial success is undeniable. After resigning as CEO of Huafu International in June 2025, he swiftly transitioned to Lotus Capital as CIO and chief economist while launching a paid knowledge platform on October 25. Priced at 899 yuan annually, it has already attracted over 11,000 subscribers, generating roughly 9.9 million yuan in revenue.
Whether his gold trade involved verbal embellishment or not, Hong Hao’s influence as a top financial IP is indisputable. For investors, the real question lies in the gap between professional analysis and actual trading amid the noise of controversy. For Hong Hao himself, balancing his dual roles as a "top influencer" and "serious investor" will be an ongoing challenge.